The overall market continues its correction and consolidation today. The market’s trading volume further retreated in the mid-day. That's mean most of the investors are staying sideline and waiting for a clearer signal. We don't expect the market to rebound today without any positive news. However we also don't believe the market will collapse anytime soon, it will stay consolidate for a while. Anyhow, there are still many individual potential stocks we can look for.
Measat - If you follow my Blog so far, you will remember I spotted Measat on 26/11. After a 1-day big gain, the investors started to take profit as the Dubai World crisis happen and the market was big downed on the next trading day. This had stopped Measat's price to go higher. Today Measat come back to break the resistance 1.93 and sustain above in the mid-day. The stock price advanced 9.94%. We saw some resistance at 2.00.
Adventa - Still bullish bias after a minor profit taking yesterday. For the price to grow further, we need to see more buying volume. I don't think it can makes it today as the market sentiment is bearish. The price advanced 0.84% for the mid-day.
Sapcres - Still under correction and consolidation. It has a strong support at 2.25. If broke down 2.25, the next support will be 2.20. The price retreated 1.31%. We saw a bearish divergence on this stock, if it unable to hold at 2.25, the best way is to exit first.
Notion - This morning broke out 2.75 but it unable to sustain with limited trading volume. Keep monitor. The price retreated 0.37 for the mid-day.
KPJ - Price continue to advance in the early morning but retreated to close unchanged. I didn’t see any bearish divergence signal yet. Keep holding if you bought this stock.
Genting - I mentioned this stock 2 days ago, it had broke out the trend line at 7.24. The technical position looks very good now. I expect to see a slow and steady up trend but not a big up daily. Price advanced 1.66%.
Hiaptek - It regains some strength, keep monitor. Price advanced 1.38%. Need volume to come in.
You will noticed I did not mention any penny stocks less than RM1.oo since last week, this is because the market is getting higher risk now. You will notice many penny stocks played rotationally, some only one-day show and never come back. So the chances of losing more money in penny stock is higher that holding a good stock when the market crash suddenly.
Friday, December 4, 2009
Thursday, December 3, 2009
Market Commentary 3/12
Today overall market was bearish biased. However it consider as a healthy correction as the volume decrease by about 25%. The investors chose to take profit or stay sideline after a 1-day moderate gain on most of the stocks yesterday. The FBM KLCI manage to stay above the Bolinger mid-band and the support level of 1270, it closed at 1272.35.
Most of the stocks I mentioned yesterday were under profit taking today except KPJ continues its up trend momentum. Mudajya and WCT have a small gain, while rest are having a minor correction.
New stocks to watch
3A - This stock shows some trend as the price and the volume were increasing today. The immediate resistance is 1.48. I saw a very strong resistance above 1.48 to 1.69. Watch for higher buying volume grows in the next few days. Otherwise it is just a normal rebound after it has been sold off for many days. Put it in your watch list.
Notion - The volume gradually increase for the last 3 days with the price follow the volume trend. Watch for break out the resistance at 2.75 and 2.85. Once it broke the resistance 2.85 and sustain above it, very high chances it will continue its up trend.
Most of the stocks I mentioned yesterday were under profit taking today except KPJ continues its up trend momentum. Mudajya and WCT have a small gain, while rest are having a minor correction.
New stocks to watch
3A - This stock shows some trend as the price and the volume were increasing today. The immediate resistance is 1.48. I saw a very strong resistance above 1.48 to 1.69. Watch for higher buying volume grows in the next few days. Otherwise it is just a normal rebound after it has been sold off for many days. Put it in your watch list.
Notion - The volume gradually increase for the last 3 days with the price follow the volume trend. Watch for break out the resistance at 2.75 and 2.85. Once it broke the resistance 2.85 and sustain above it, very high chances it will continue its up trend.
Higher Low - A Bullish Trend
Today market sentiment is more toward bearish bias; the trading volume is very low in the morning session. Many of the counters I mentioned yesterday were under profit taking today. We hope this is a short-term healthy correction rather than a major correction.
The concept of "Higher Low"
You have to understand a counter cannot keep rising continuously for weeks or months without any correction. For a bullish trend to continue, there must be a healthy correction in between. For example, a counter was trending up for about 4 to 5 days. Many investors will start to take profit because they afraid the price may fall. When the stock's price drop to a certain level, it started to rebound again because many investors who "miss the boat" previously will rush in to buy. There must be some good news on this particular stock. So they will not wait until the stock price to fall until the previous low. The process will continue for a few times and the stock price keep rising for a certain period. This so called a bullish trend and the higher low confirms the bullish trend.
I quote you two examples below. Please review the chart pattern of Sapcres and Adventa.
The concept of "Higher Low"
You have to understand a counter cannot keep rising continuously for weeks or months without any correction. For a bullish trend to continue, there must be a healthy correction in between. For example, a counter was trending up for about 4 to 5 days. Many investors will start to take profit because they afraid the price may fall. When the stock's price drop to a certain level, it started to rebound again because many investors who "miss the boat" previously will rush in to buy. There must be some good news on this particular stock. So they will not wait until the stock price to fall until the previous low. The process will continue for a few times and the stock price keep rising for a certain period. This so called a bullish trend and the higher low confirms the bullish trend.
I quote you two examples below. Please review the chart pattern of Sapcres and Adventa.
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
Market commentary 2/12
The buying activity was slowing down in the afternoon session however I discovered the buying activity was restarted again after 4pm. FBM KLCI successfully broke the resistance 1270 today and closed at 1271.15. Total market volume increased by about 3.7% with 855 million shares traded. The market participation still consider low as the volume still below 40 days volume moving average. Right now 1270 level became the support of FBM KLCI. Can it sit firm above 1270 tomorrow? All these depend on market sentiment in the next few days. Anyhow it is a good time to re-enter the market today after been sold off for a few days.
Stocks that I mentioned in the Mid-Day already broke out. Are they able to sit firm is another question. As I mentioned above, we have to see the overall market sentiment.
Adventa - Double breaks for Adventa today, well done. It broke 2.26 in the morning and continues its trend to break 2.42 near the closing. It closed at historical high at 2.44. I saw some resistance at 2.45 but I believe it is not a big problem for it to break if the market sentiment remains like today.
Supermx- Supermx really a Super Man again. It broke the trend line resistance at 4.01 and marginally sits above it at 4.02. The volume for Supermx is slightly insufficient today. We hope that the buying volume for tomorrow can be much higher, otherwise it might return to below 4.01.
Sapcres - The stock price not really grow like Supermx and Adventa, only up 2.64% and closed at 2.33. It broke the short-term resistance at 2.31 and able stay above it today. As I mentioned in the mid day, there are many investors who stuck at July 2007 as well as those already make profit wanted exit at this price. However I took a close look at the buying activities, the buyers are much lesser than the sellers that line up to buy or sell. The good sign is the buyers who did not line up to buy the stock just took the seller price 2.33 aggressively toward the closing. So what it tells us? The next resistance I saw is 2.35. Although the volume for today is above 40 days VMA, but I hope it can increase further tomorrow in order for the trend to continue. By analysing the chart, there are much stronger resistances at 2.40, 2,50 and 2.70.
Others potential stocks
KPJ - Resistances 5.14 and 5.23 had been broken and closed at historical high 5.32. Buying volume continuous increase for 2 days. Support is about 5.14.
IJMLand - Volume increase but still not enough. Watch for break out 2.40 but the resistance very strong above 2.40 to 2.65. Good buy only if the volume continues to increase.
Mudajya - My favourite counter fly again. It broke out resistance 4.48 and closed at 4.58. The only problem is low volume for today. The next resistance is 4.60 and the support is 4.48.
Latexx - Latexx is another company has technical position like Adventa and Supermx. Watch for break out at 2.75 and 2.82. The only problem is the volume insufficient.
There are many other stocks rebounded and have technical position today but difficult to mention them. Good counters like WCT, Genting, E&O, Hiaptek and Unisem are worth to take a close monitor. The plantation index look good, also take a look at some plantation counters.
Stocks that I mentioned in the Mid-Day already broke out. Are they able to sit firm is another question. As I mentioned above, we have to see the overall market sentiment.
Adventa - Double breaks for Adventa today, well done. It broke 2.26 in the morning and continues its trend to break 2.42 near the closing. It closed at historical high at 2.44. I saw some resistance at 2.45 but I believe it is not a big problem for it to break if the market sentiment remains like today.
Supermx- Supermx really a Super Man again. It broke the trend line resistance at 4.01 and marginally sits above it at 4.02. The volume for Supermx is slightly insufficient today. We hope that the buying volume for tomorrow can be much higher, otherwise it might return to below 4.01.
Sapcres - The stock price not really grow like Supermx and Adventa, only up 2.64% and closed at 2.33. It broke the short-term resistance at 2.31 and able stay above it today. As I mentioned in the mid day, there are many investors who stuck at July 2007 as well as those already make profit wanted exit at this price. However I took a close look at the buying activities, the buyers are much lesser than the sellers that line up to buy or sell. The good sign is the buyers who did not line up to buy the stock just took the seller price 2.33 aggressively toward the closing. So what it tells us? The next resistance I saw is 2.35. Although the volume for today is above 40 days VMA, but I hope it can increase further tomorrow in order for the trend to continue. By analysing the chart, there are much stronger resistances at 2.40, 2,50 and 2.70.
Others potential stocks
KPJ - Resistances 5.14 and 5.23 had been broken and closed at historical high 5.32. Buying volume continuous increase for 2 days. Support is about 5.14.
IJMLand - Volume increase but still not enough. Watch for break out 2.40 but the resistance very strong above 2.40 to 2.65. Good buy only if the volume continues to increase.
Mudajya - My favourite counter fly again. It broke out resistance 4.48 and closed at 4.58. The only problem is low volume for today. The next resistance is 4.60 and the support is 4.48.
Latexx - Latexx is another company has technical position like Adventa and Supermx. Watch for break out at 2.75 and 2.82. The only problem is the volume insufficient.
There are many other stocks rebounded and have technical position today but difficult to mention them. Good counters like WCT, Genting, E&O, Hiaptek and Unisem are worth to take a close monitor. The plantation index look good, also take a look at some plantation counters.
Mid-day Commentary 2/12
The market regain strength after the overnight Dow Jone Industry Index rose more than 1%. The regional markets as well as local market are in positive zone in the morning. FBM KLCI had penetrated the resistance 1270 but retreated at the mid-day closing. No doubt FBM KLCI still stay below 1270, the overall market is looking better in the morning session. Total gainers are 345 vs the losers 183. The trading volume is improving for the mid-day with 513 million shares exchanged.
A few counters retest the previous resistance. Please refer to the older charts in this Blog for reference.
Supermx - up 3.11%, retest the resistance 4.01
Adventa - up 3.59%, trend line resistance broken again and close at 2.31. Looking to test 2.42 soon.
Sapcres - up 2.20%, short term resistance 2.31 just broken and closed at 2.32. Look to rise higher however looking backward, they are still many investors stuck above 2.32 in July 2007. So we need a huge volume to overcome that in order for the trend to continue.
A few counters retest the previous resistance. Please refer to the older charts in this Blog for reference.
Supermx - up 3.11%, retest the resistance 4.01
Adventa - up 3.59%, trend line resistance broken again and close at 2.31. Looking to test 2.42 soon.
Sapcres - up 2.20%, short term resistance 2.31 just broken and closed at 2.32. Look to rise higher however looking backward, they are still many investors stuck above 2.32 in July 2007. So we need a huge volume to overcome that in order for the trend to continue.
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
Change of Blog's Title 1/12
Please be informed that started from today 1/12/2009 onward, the Blog’s title had been renamed to "Technical Analysis Education". In my blog, you will find that I used many technical analysis tools to analyse each stock. Since most of the investors do not carry any technical analysis tools, my objective is to help you/our investors to maximize the gains and minimize the risk in the stock market, currency markets or futures markets. This knowledge is not limited in Malaysia but the whole stock markets in the world. You will find it very helpful if you know how to read a chart for trading a stock, currency or futures. Although the fundamental of a stock is important but you cannot lack of technical analysis tools.
Right now I am managing 3 blogs, an English version Blog, a Chinese version Blog and a Chart Pattern Blog. They all linked together. Starting next week, I will post more technical analysis education on the Chart Pattern Analysis Blog. It will be a step-by-step guidance for the beginners. If you find it interesting and important for you, please respond me by email or use the Blog’s comment under each post. Friend, I really need your feedback and comments, if not it will be a waste for my effort if you don't read them. I hope to see some emails from you. It will update at least once a week on the Chart Pattern Analysis blog. Please visit it regularly.
Right now I am managing 3 blogs, an English version Blog, a Chinese version Blog and a Chart Pattern Blog. They all linked together. Starting next week, I will post more technical analysis education on the Chart Pattern Analysis Blog. It will be a step-by-step guidance for the beginners. If you find it interesting and important for you, please respond me by email or use the Blog’s comment under each post. Friend, I really need your feedback and comments, if not it will be a waste for my effort if you don't read them. I hope to see some emails from you. It will update at least once a week on the Chart Pattern Analysis blog. Please visit it regularly.
Bearish bias on KNM 1/12
Although the FBM KLCI gains 7.6 points today, the overall market sentiment is considered as neutral bias. The investors are very caution. As you can see the volume is only 824 million shares traded. The bear and the bull is about 50% Vs 50%. The resistance is about 1270-1271 while the support is at about 1256-1254.
I had posted KNM's technical view on 26/11. Please refer to my Chinese Blog, or the Chart Pattern Blog for reference. KNM after broke down the support trend line, it continue to fall until today for a total of 6 trading days. The volume is getting higher for yesterday and today. This means KNM is under selling pressure now. The next support is 0.69. 0.74 will became the resistance now. If 0.69 is broken, the next support is 0.53. If you are still holding KNM, please be caution. Most important, do not average down. Please refer to the chart for your reference.
Click to enlarge
I had posted KNM's technical view on 26/11. Please refer to my Chinese Blog, or the Chart Pattern Blog for reference. KNM after broke down the support trend line, it continue to fall until today for a total of 6 trading days. The volume is getting higher for yesterday and today. This means KNM is under selling pressure now. The next support is 0.69. 0.74 will became the resistance now. If 0.69 is broken, the next support is 0.53. If you are still holding KNM, please be caution. Most important, do not average down. Please refer to the chart for your reference.
Click to enlarge
Understand the market cycle
Many of us donot know there is a stock market cycle exists for an individual stock or the overall market. If you are able to master the stock market cycle for an individual stock or overall stock market, you will be earning a handsome income from the stock market. In order for you to do that, you must either financially sound or expert in technical analysis. If you are financially sound, you can start to pick up the stock slowly in the phase 1. This is so called accumulation. However if you are not financially sound but have rich knowledge in technical analysis, you can start to pick up the stock on phase 2. So your money will not stuck in the stock market for long time.
The market is composed of 4 phases
1)An accumulation phase
The professional team from the big financial institution or it can be fund managers normally pick up the stock or stocks in this phase. Sometime I refer this as the "Smart Money" accumulation as they are a professional teams and not a normal person. This is the longest phase in the market cycle. The time frame can be ranged from 6 months up to 3 years. It is very difficult for an individual retailers to participate in this phase due to the long time frame and capital limitation. The stock price in this phase normally go side way or within a trading range with low volume.
2)A public and media promotion phase
The media started to focus on the particular stock or sector and the public (retail traders/investors)started to jump in. These are the momentum traders and investors that see a trend forming and wanted to get into the action. That's how a technical analysts jump into the early stage of the phase 2 when they saw the price break out from the resistance or indicators. The price started to rise and volume increase.
3)A distribution phase
The “smart money” started to sells while the non technical retail traders and investors keep buying. The price keep increasing but the volume started to decrease. If you are a technical analyst, normally you are able spot a bearish divergence signal on this phase and say "Bye-Bye" to this stock.
4)A selling phase
More aggressive selling from the professional teams(Smart Money) as well as the retail traders. You can see the price fall very quick as the investors started to panic and wanted to get out as soon as possible. The price will drop very fast if there is a huge selling volume in this phase.
I will quote more examples/chart patterns in future for a better understanding.
The market is composed of 4 phases
1)An accumulation phase
The professional team from the big financial institution or it can be fund managers normally pick up the stock or stocks in this phase. Sometime I refer this as the "Smart Money" accumulation as they are a professional teams and not a normal person. This is the longest phase in the market cycle. The time frame can be ranged from 6 months up to 3 years. It is very difficult for an individual retailers to participate in this phase due to the long time frame and capital limitation. The stock price in this phase normally go side way or within a trading range with low volume.
2)A public and media promotion phase
The media started to focus on the particular stock or sector and the public (retail traders/investors)started to jump in. These are the momentum traders and investors that see a trend forming and wanted to get into the action. That's how a technical analysts jump into the early stage of the phase 2 when they saw the price break out from the resistance or indicators. The price started to rise and volume increase.
3)A distribution phase
The “smart money” started to sells while the non technical retail traders and investors keep buying. The price keep increasing but the volume started to decrease. If you are a technical analyst, normally you are able spot a bearish divergence signal on this phase and say "Bye-Bye" to this stock.
4)A selling phase
More aggressive selling from the professional teams(Smart Money) as well as the retail traders. You can see the price fall very quick as the investors started to panic and wanted to get out as soon as possible. The price will drop very fast if there is a huge selling volume in this phase.
I will quote more examples/chart patterns in future for a better understanding.
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