Technical Commentary 11/01/10

KLCI closed at 1294.51 (+1.53, +0.12%). The market volume was increased by 35% to 1.4Billion shares today. The volume is well above 40 days VMA, this signal us the investors are more confident now and seem that the market is in the uptrend direction. The KLCI still considered as consolidation with slightly bullish biased. We hope that the market will attract more retail investors to come back like we saw in the beginning of 2007. We will see a “mini bull” if the market volume can exceed 1.2 Billion shares daily.

There are 476 up counters and 292 down counters. The RSI hooked up again and close to 70 level thresholds at 69.93, STC stays at %K at 85.73 and %D at 85. The MACD is slightly trending up and still indicating on the uptrend direction without forming a rounding top yet. The Bollinger band is slightly narrower by -5% compare to last Friday. This shows that the market is still consolidating with slightly bullish biased.

In short, all daily indicators show that KLCI short-term still bullish biased. KLCI nearest resistance level is at 1300. The support level is at 1288, the nearest broke out peak, and the next support level is at the Bollinger mid-band around 1283. Althogh KLCI 30 components are consolidate but the non KLCI stocks are pushing up rotationally. You can notice some stocks like Penta, IRCB, Takaso, PRDUREN and etc are pushing up and there is a new star everyday. They try to keep the KLCI flat or slightly uptrend, but keep pushing up a different stocks everyday.

In KLCI weekly analysis, MACD’s histogram has indicates round bottom. RSI stays above 70-level at 75.84, STC%K at 89.85 and %D at 77.11, momentum slightly flat above zero line. The Bollinger band has closed narrower by -6% compare to last week. As today is the 1st day of the week, we need to wait until Friday to see a clearer picture on the weekly trend. The possible upside resistance is 1300-1305 and then 1353. The possible support levels are 1288 (previous broke out peak) and 1274 (Bollinger middle band).



Review our watch list - Penta

We recommended Penta as one of our stocks watch for Monday 11/1/10. This morning it opened with gap up at 0.26 and went as high as 0.55 before closed at 0.53, up 116%. We are happy that not only we make big profit on Penta but also some of our investors in this Blog who follow us. I would like to say congratulation to all who follow our recommendation.

By analysing the weekly chart of Penta, It broke the major resistances at 0.21 and 0.235 on last Friday that trigger us to recommend this stock. Today it further broke three more resistances at 0.35, 0.45 and 0.53. Right now it stay at resistance 0.53. However 0.53 is now become an immediate support. The next resistances are 0.55 and 0.75. If profit taking is happening tomorrow, we are looking at next support level at 0.45 and Fibo 0.41. If 0.45 and 0.41 is not broken after T+3, we believe there is another round will come.

The Bollinger band expanded greatly to 470%. The STC %K hit 100% last Friday and closed at 94% today. The %D is above 70 at 81.42. MACD hooked up and volume increased by 364% closed at 16.6 Mil shares. The indicators shown that Penta is very bullish biased. As you can see there are not many volume before, so we predict the stock price will push higher on Tuesday morning before we expect some profit taking happen later.

We feel that this stock can push up easily mainly because it had consolidated for long time with very low volume. Once the buying volume come in, it easily takes away the seller price, as there are not many sellers there.



Stock to Watch for Tuesday 12/1/09

LBICap (code 8494)
Sector: Main board Industrial
Current Net Asset: 1.04
Current stock price: 0.785
Current PE: 7.84

LBICap was traded at RM11.20 before the 1997 Asia financial crisis. Since then the stock price was plunging down as low as 0.41 in 1998. It climbed again as high as 4.40 in Feb 2000. From the stock price 4.40 in year 2000, it slowly down trend until April 2001. The stock price had been trading in a range of 1.06 to 0.355 since Jan 2004. The consolidation period is about 6 years until today.

Looking at shorter view, the stock up 12% today with volume increased after consecutive down for 3 days. The immediate resistance is the upper trend line at 0.81. The support is at Fibo 0.705. The Bollinger Band had opened 21%, RSI below the threshold at 65.45, STC %K just above 30. The MACD hooked up and the volume increase by 858%. The momentum is above zero. These indicators indicate that LBICap potentially in the uptrend biased.

Also take a look at LBI-WA (code 8984-WA)
Expire date: 17 APR 2018
Exercise: 1:1 @ RM 1,00
Price closing today: o.25
Volume increase by 1243%

Daily FBMKLCI Technical Analysis 08-Jan-10 (FRI):

KLCI closed at 1292.98 (+1.56, +0.12%). Today is the third day of further reduction in trading volume by 29% to 1.036bil shares from the peak of 1.86bil shares. However it is still above 40 days VMA (820mil). We observed that the traded volume largely increased during the last one hour of trading. That may signal next week’s trading momentum may be good. (Read weekly analysis in the following).

There are 326 up counters and 367 down counters. The RSI is slightly below 70 level thresholds closed at 67, STC stays at %K at 83 and %D at 86. The MACD is slowing down but still indicating on the uptrend direction without forming a rounding top yet. The Bollinger band is slightly expended by 1% compare to Thursday. This shows that the market has yet to correct or consolidate further.

In short, all daily indicators show that KLCI short-term still not bearish biased. KLCI nearest resistance level is at 1300. The support level is at 1288, the nearest broke out peak, and the next support level is at the Bollinger mid-band around 1280.

In KLCI weekly analysis, MACD’s histogram has indicates round bottom. RSI stays above 70-level at 71, STC%K at 90 and %D at 70, momentum hooks up above zero line. The weekly trading has improved drastically by 222% to 7.1bil shares. The Bollinger band has expended by 41%. All weekly indicators show the market is trending upward, bullish biased. The possible upside resistance is 1300-1305 and then 1353. The possible support levels are 1288 (previous broke out peak) and 1276 (Bollinger middle band).








Stock to Watch:

Proton (5304):
As shown in the chart details, we are observing this counter to break out of the triangle. If the break up took place, the nearest possible resistances are 4.10 / 4.24 /4.50 / 4.60. Should all these resistances were broken likelihood we are observing the formation of Elliot wave 5 toward may be 5.60. However, should it break downward, the cut lost price could be around or below 3.90.








Penta (7160):
This counter has been consolidating for almost 9 months until today it broke up above 0.210 and 0.235 and finally closed at 0.240. We are observing for the nearest possible resistance at 0.330 and 0.360. The support levels are 0.235 and 0.210.

Technical Commentary 07/01/10

KLCI went as high as 1299.70 in the intraday but closed negative at 1291.17 (-1.75, -0.1%). It was resisted by 1300 resistance, which we forecast earlier. The trading volume was reduced by –11% at 1.47 bil shares however it is still above 40 days VMA. This means that there are still many buyers willing to collect the shares from the sellers to keep the market active. Technically KLCI is bearish biased in the short term after it had risen for 3 days. The candlestick formed a shooting star at the closing; this signal a further correction or consolidation will follow up. By switching the chart over to weekly, the mid-term view on KLCI is still bullish.

There are 324 up counters and 449 down counters. The RSI is slightly below 70 level thresholds closed at 69.1, STC retracted with %K at 80.16 and %D at 89.75. The Bollinger band is 0%, this signal a consolidation or correction will happen. The MACD had slowing down and it might form a rounding top if it further correct tomorrow. In short, all indicators shown that KLCI short-term direction is bearish biased. KLCI nearest resistance level is at 1300. The support level is at 1288, which it broke out yesterday and the next support level is at the Bollinger mid-band around 1276.

By scanning through the active counters, there are many counters open higher than yesterday but closed below yesterday high. Many candlesticks formed a doji star, shooting star, evening star, hanging man or dark cloud cover. This signal a further consolidation or correction on those stocks after they had been run up for 3 days. However there are certain stocks, which did not run on the last 3 days, seem to take over the show. Those stocks I saw are Notion, Coastal and HSPlant. Please refer to the KLCI daily chart below.

Technical Commentary 06/01/10

The 3rd trading day of 2010 continues its rally with KLCI closed at 1293.17 (+4.93, +0.4%). The intraday broke out to a new high touching at 1296.44 since 21-5-08. This broke out is supported by good traded volume of 1.6560 bil shares but down by 11.2%. However even the market volume today down by 11.2% but it is still far above 40 days VMA which is sufficient for a “Mini bull”. The volume mainly contributed by 2nd & 3rd liners but we saw blue chips IOICorp, Axiata, AMMB, TM, Genting and some other FBM KLCI key components also actively participated. This is a good sign for the market to continue its rally.

We saw some correction on most of the stocks that run for the last 2 days. Today rubber stocks are in action and the price push up as high as 40% on Ruberex-WA. Ruberex up 18%, SupperMx gain another 13%, Adventa gain 11% and the rest range from 1.5% to 14%. We believe this push up is contributed by an in flow of foreign hot money. We also expect once the rubber group pushed up to reasonable price, another sector will take place. We think a rotational play will happen soon.

There are 452 up counters and 299 down counters. The RSI is exceeded 70 level threshold closed at 73.14, STC retracts slightly with %K at 91.5 and %D at 92.85. The Bollinger band further expanded by 27%. The MACD already confirmed crossing the trigger line and hooked up further. In short, all indicators show that the KLCI short-term direction is bullish biased.

The KLCI’s immediate resistance is today’s intraday high at 1296.44. The next nearest resistance is 1300-1305 (last peak during Jun-08) and the support is at Bollinger middle band at 1275 now.



Technical View on Supermx

My target on Supermx at RM5.30 came early than expected before the earning result. The reason mainly due to the inflow of hot money on the rubber stocks sector. The stock broke out of the trend line at 4.98 today. Short and long term trend looked very bullish today; hence I revised my target price on Supermx to above RM6.00 before the earning result. We need to further analyse the chart in the next few days to determine the price movement.

I use DMI for the short-term view; the green +D is hooking up strongly with the yellow ADX line trending up. This shown that the Bull is strong. I expect the ADX will hit the blue circle before the price started correct and consolidate. However I believe the price might consolidate first due to overbought today.
Other indicators:
Bollinger Band expanded by 35%
Volume increased by 192%
MACD hooked up and exceeded previous peak
RSI >90, reach overbought zone, short term might consolidate
STC: %D at 92% and %K at 100. Short term might consolidate

Long-term view on Supermax is very bullish. The MACD just started to hook up with the Bollinger band expanded 62%.
Other indicators:
RSI above 70 to close at 85.1
STC: %K at 100 and %D at 96.79
DMI: ADX line and +D line above 50

Daily FBMKLCI Technical Analysis 05-Jan-10 (TUE):

The second trading day of 2010 strike out a beautiful rally with KLCI closed at 1288.24 (+12.49, +0.98%). The intraday broke out to a new high touching 1290.55 since last Mar-09. This broke out is supported by good traded volume of 1.864bil shares, up by +64.9%. Today, the volume mainly still contributed by 2nd & 3rd liners, of course some key CI components also actively participated already.

There are 658 up counters and 184 down counters. The RSI is exceeded 70 level threshold closed at 71.2, STC retracts slightly with %K at 93.38 and %D at 90.46. The Bollinger band further expended to 37%. The MACD already confirmed crossing the trigger line and hook up further. In short, all indicators show that the KLCI short-term direction is bullish biased.

The KLCI’s nearest resistance is 1300-1305 (last peak during Jun-08) and the support is at Bollinger middle band at 1269 now.

In the weekly chart analysis, so long as the KLCI could stays above 1274 for this week, the uptrend momentum could dwell probably toward next few weeks to come. Since it broke 1288, we are awaiting KLCI to reach 1300-1305. And should it go beyond 1305, we may wait for 1353 (the gap during Feb-08 which coincide with the Fibo level). Please see charts below.

Stocks Watch List:

LBS and LBS-WA closed flat on Tuesday. Should they close “red” on Wednesday, that may suggest the exhausted rally and correction could be proceeding.

E&O closed 2.6% higher to 1.18. Since a doji star is formed today, we concern that a correction may happen the next day. Should minor correction were to take place for a few days, the possible support levels are 1.14 and 1.09. However, all indicators are still supporting this counter on the up trending direction. Should rally were to continue, the resistance may be at 1.23 / 1.31 / 1.41.

Efficen closed 2.3% higher to 0.225. Again a doji star is formed today, we concern that a correction may happen the next day. Should minor correction were to take place for a few days, the possible support levels are 0.215 and 0.205. However, all indicators are still supporting this counter on the up trending direction. The upside nearest resistance could be around 0.240 / 0.260 / 0.275.

Mtouche closed 16.7% higher to 0.350. All indicators are supporting this counter on the up trending direction. The upside nearest resistance could be around 0.380 / 0.405 / 0.455.

Stock to watch

I believe you still remember our chartist JK had posted IJMLand-WA sometime ago. The warrant rise slowly everyday since recommended and it started to consolidate since the last 3 trading days. I also notice the mother share and the warrant quite rare to correlate to each other recently.

Today I will talk about the mother share, IJMLand. This stock after peaked on 20/10/09, it started to correct and consolidate. It makes a V-turn on last Monday and the price slowly increase. Today it closed at 2.40, very good chance for it to continue its uptrend if the price can close above 2.41 on tomorrow (Wednesday).

By looking at the chart, if the uptrend is confirmed, it should be an Elliott Wave No. 5 which could end in 1-2 months or longer. Other indicators:

1. Bollinger Band expended 9% and the price is above the BBMB
2. RSI=58.33, Volume> 40 days VMA
3. MACD rounded bottom, just at the Zero X-over
4. Price above 10 and 20 days EMA
5. STC %K=96, %D=84

Price presently resisted by 2.41, the support is at the BBMB 2.28. Cut loss if price dip below 2.28 or -5% to -8% below the entry price. Please refer to the chart below.



We also obtained a permission from our clients to show you how our clients making money using us as an adviser for their investment. See how profitable they are, please take a look.

Technical Commentary 04/01/10

KLCL continues its uptrend today by chopping up another 2.97 points at 1275.75. There are 579 up counters and 159 down counters. The KLCI index had broken out the short-term trend line of the symmetrical wedge. The RSI is approaching 70, STC %K at 100 and %D at 91. The Bollinger band expended 7% and the price is above the mid band. The MACD already confirmed crossing the trigger line. These indicators shown that the KLCI short-term direction is bullish biased. The overall market volume had increased by 87.6%, which contributed mostly by the 2nd and 3rd liners. In view of the increment of the market's volume, we are certain that the market participants had re-enter the market after the long holidays. This is good news for KLSE on the 1st market day of 2010. The KLCI’s resistance is at Fibo 1288 and the support is at Fibo 1257. Please see the chart below.

In the weekly chart analysis, so long as the KLCI could stays above 1274 for this week, the uptrend momentum could dwell probably toward next few weeks to come. If it able to break 1288, we saw a stronger resistances at 1300 and 1350.



Our Stocks
We recommend E&O on last Monday, today fly 9.5%. Uptrend still intact. Immediate resistance at 1.16 and the support is 1.10 and the 200 days MA at 1.08.

LBS and LBS-WA continue their unbeatable trend, they move up another 13% and 43% respectively. Did you catch them?

Most of the penny stocks we recommended are moving except Efficen and Mtouche. The chances for Efficen to go up still intact but Mtouche not looking good. The other stocks that recommended like LHH, Sunway, Hunzpty and TAS are moving up. The rest are consolidate, uptrend still intact. (Mtouche announce right issue with free warrant, price may turn around)

Gamuda formed a Bullish divergence signal
This is another example of Bullish Divergence. As you can see, Gamuda rebounded strongly today due to bullish divergence signal. The chart (price) form a lower low but the MACD fail to follow the price, intead it go higher and create a bullish divergence signal. Usually this signal is very reliable and that's why we like to spot this kind of pattern. We bought this stock at 2.60 as we noticed the MACD oppose the price. However we saw a high resistance range between 2.82 to 3.10. We will take profit first if it started to turn around. A higher volume is required to push the price higher. Please refer to the chart below

Other stocks to Watch

There are too many stocks started to move up and hard to mention all. However I want you to consider the sectors now, not really a teachnical analysis.

Watchout for water related counters as Jaks and Salcon are big up today. Others are KPS and KHSB are not moving much.

Wimax related group - Gpacket, Redtone, GHLsys, YTLE and Mtone

Steel counters - LionInd is moving, others like Kinstel, Annjoo, Masteel, CSCStel, Lsteel, SSteel and Wzsteel might follow.

Oil and Gas - Scomi, Bornoil, Ramunia/-WA and KNM/-CB already moving up, You may consider Petra, TGOFF, Waseong, Dialog, Ranhill, Alarm and Perisai. Perisai had form a nice rounded bottom and if it breaks 0.57 cents, it will go higher.

Stock Watch Friday 1/1/10

Efficient E-Solutions Berhad(0064)
Efficient E-Solutions Berhad is an investment holding company. The Company, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a business process outsourcing (BPO) company, and offers comprehensive data and document management solutions. Its core services include data processing, document processing, electronic and physical distribution, imaging and data capture, archival and retrieval, and records management. The Company has developed a suite of work-flow management applications to support its data processing procedures, which include data conversion, data manipulation, data merging and data mining. Its document processing services range from data extraction, data conversion, formatting of documents, to data printing and preparation of printed documents for distribution by post. Its electronic bill presentment (EBP) services range from EBP subscription services to data extraction, creation, and delivery via electronic media. On January 16, 2008, it acquired Efficient International Sdn Bhd. http://www.efficient.com.my/index.html

Par value: 0.10
PER: 7.28
Last Qtr profit: RM4,364,000
EPS: 0.66 cents, increase 8% Q-Q
Accumulate EPS: 2.06, increase 9% Y-Y
ROE: 18.29
PEG: 0.81
Trading objective: Short term for high risk taker only

The stock price of Efficen after broke down from the 50 days MA, the price moved along the trading range of 0.185 cents to 0.215 cents with low volume. On Thursday 31/1209, the price just broke out 0.21 cents and closed at 0.22 cents for the 1st time since 13/11/09 with significant volume increase in the last hour. By analysing the chart, it also broke the 50 days MA at the same time. The MACD had hooked up and the MACD line very close to Zero cross over line. The volume just manages to touch 40 days VMA. Other indicators:
STC %K at 100 and %D at 81.82
RSI: 63.64
Momentum above Zero
DMI: Green +DI crosses Red -DI and hooked up
Bollnger Band: Price stay above mid-band and it expanded 90%.

The chart pattern and the indicators above show that Efficen is already set-up for the up trend. However if the price turn around after you had acquired, the cut loss points should be set at 0.205 or -8% to -10% below the entry price. Take note, the price from 0.22 to 0.20 will be -9%, so it is very high risk to trade a low price counter. We recommend the stock only for the trader who prepares to take the risk.
Please see the chart below for your reference



Other stock to watch for next week

High Risk High return for High Risk Takers
1. 9342 Harvest
2. 9342WA Harvest-WA
3. 0043 Mtronic
4. 7013 Hubline
5. 7013-WA Hubline-WA
6. 0082-WA Gpacket-WA
7. 0092 Mtouche

Short to Mid-term (Low to medium risk)
1. 7205 Cocolnd
2. 6505 Delloyd
3. 0152 DSCSOL
4. 7722 Hingyap (High dividend payer >10% yield)
5. 5018 Hunzpty
6. 4308 Sunway
7. 4839 LHH
8. 5149 TAS
9. 5152 MBL