FBMKLCI - Technical Commentary 15/07/10

As we mentioned yesterday CI counters were overbought. FBMKLCI finally cannot stand the pressure after it had risen for 7 straight trading days; it closed at 1334.08 (-7.0, -0.52%) today. FBMKLCI stays below the 1335 level, which it broke out yesterday and right now 1335 is the resistance. Today is considered as healthy correction as the trading volume is lower than yesterday.

The overall market’s trend is considers as bearish biased today as there were 242 up counters and 390 down counters with the market total traded volume decreased by 22.7% to 619 MIL shares. The market volume is below the 40 days VMA today; this means that the investors are caution.

Today’s FBMKLCI top 5 gaining components are PETDAG, PETGAS, HLBANK, UMW and PPB. The top 5 lagging components are GENM, BJTOTO, MMCCORP, GENTING and AMMB.

FBMKLCI Technical Indicators
FBMKLCI stays above the Bollinger Middle Band 10 (BMB10). The Bollinger Band 10 (BB10) is open but reduces to 8%; this means that FBMKLCI under technical correction but still considered bullish biased.

RSI hooks down slightly at 55.39; this indicates FBMKLCI is under technical correction.

STC %K decreases to 83.44% and the %D decreases to 91.96, this indicates FBMKLCI under technical correction but still considered bullish biased.

The MACD line crosses the trigger line and the histogram crosses Zero, this indicates FBMKLCI is bullish biased.

Summary
All the indicators indicate FBMKLCI is having technical correction due to overbought but the bullish trend has not broken yet.
The nearest possible resistance levels for FBMKLCI is 1341 (yesterday high) and 1350 whereas the nearest possible supports levels is 1325 (FR 76.4%). Please refer to the picture below.

庫存降低‧需求殷切‧半導體成長勢頭保持

（吉隆坡）庫存降低、新產品推展、消費與個人電腦市場需求殷切；加上企業的資訊工藝開銷激漲，預計半導體業在今年上半年的活絡成長動能，將保持勢頭至下半年。


分析員預料2011年的成長或趨緩。


達證券對科技股保持“加碼”評估，惟會密切監督情況才會檢討評級，主要來自歐洲債務危機引發的需求緊縮。

該行強調“買進”馬太平洋（MPI, 3867, 主板科技組）及友力森（UNISEM, 5005, 主板科技組），目標價分別為8令吉及4令吉10仙。

“主要風險是緊縮貨幣政策提早或導致全球經濟復甦脫軌；馬幣比預期強勢；以及原料成本提高。”


根據半導體業協會（SIA）的數據顯示，全球晶片銷售在5月或持續攀升至247億令吉的創新記錄水平，比4月上揚4.5%，按年則激漲47.6%（4月彈升50.4%）。

這是2007年11月科技高峰以來的第二高銷售紀錄。

達證券相信，全球晶片銷售將達到SIA預測的2010年達28.4%成長至2905億美元。SIA把此成長歸功於個人電腦及手機的銷售持續增溫、企業對資訊工藝的需求殷切、汽車業及新興市場的需求亦回溫。


個人電腦銷售在今年預計增長20%，手機銷售按年上揚10至12%。新興市場如中國及印度駕馭成長。


根據SIA透露，半導體業對宏觀經濟敏感，這些因素雖不足以影響全球半導體銷售，但可能影響下半年銷售。


所有區域錄得按月成長，以美國居冠，激揚8.2%，亞太揚5%、歐洲增1.7%及日本起1.3%。


按年計，美國成長最突出，飆漲52.9%，亞太50.9%，歐洲和日本份別為43.8%及34.7%。


達證券表示，按年成長縮窄，反映需求正常化。根據過去季節性走勢顯示，未來的按年成長率將呆滯或微漲。


半導體訂單出貨率在5月份下滑至1.12倍，4月為1.13倍。已是連續第11個月維持在1倍以上水平（3個月平均波動），反映成長勢頭仍然完美。（1.12倍表示5月接獲112美元的訂單，出貨價值為100美元。）上述訂單創下2007年6月以來最高峰，而出貨率也寫下2008年5月以來的顛峰。


達證券相信訂單出貨率在今年下半年或跌破1倍，但並不表示半導體的萎縮或未來的出口將降低，相信出貨會迎頭趕上強勢的訂單水平，主要拜新業者的新增添產能所賜。

Source: Sinchew Finance 星洲日報／財經‧2010.07.14

FBMKLCI - Technical Commentary 14/07/10

Thanks to Intel’s Q2 financial result and Q3 projection was better than expected, the global market was surging today. FBMKLCI opened with gap up of 3.78 points at1336.65 and it was bullish throughout the sessions to close at 1341.08 (+8.21, +0.62%). FBMKLCI had broken out the previous high 1335 and manage to stay above it. Right now the investors’ confident level had improved as the trading volume was increased today. Although the CI counters near overbought today and we believe some levels of correction may happen any time after it was rising for 7 trading sessions. As long as a lower high (on the chart) is created after the correction, FBMKLCI may has a good chance the break 1350 provide there is no bad news in US or Europe in near term.

The overall market’s trend is considers as bullish today as there were 506 up counters and 194 down counters with the market total traded volume increased by 39.6% to 821 MIL shares. The market volume is above the 40 days VMA today; this means that the investors are more confident now after Intel posted a good Q2 result.

Today’s FBMKLCI top 5 gaining components are HLFG, SIME, PPB, AMMB and TENAGA. The top 3 lagging components are YTL, MISC and DIGI.

FBMKLCI Technical Indicators
FBMKLCI stays above the Bollinger Middle Band 10 (BMB10). The Bollinger Band 10 (BB10) had opened 27%; this means that FBMKLCI is bullish biased.

RSI hooks up again at 57.8; this indicates FBMKLCI is slightly bullish biased.

STC %K moves sideway to 98.15% and the %D increases to 92.1, this indicates FBMKLCI is bullish biased and also indicates CI counters is over bought.

The MACD line crosses the trigger line and the histogram crosses Zero, this indicates FBMKLCI is bullish biased.

Summary
All the indicators indicate FBMKLCI is bullish biased. However the STC indicates the CI counters near overbought and correction may happen any time from now. Nevertheless if the buying interest is continues tomorrow, the correction may delay.
The nearest possible resistance levels for FBMKLCI is 1350 whereas the nearest possible supports levels is 1335 and 1325 (FR 76.4%). Please refer to the picture below.

Intel posts biggest quarterly profit in a decade

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- Intel Corp. has booked its largest quarterly net income in a decade as the chipmaker benefits from a stronger computer market and more sophisticated factories.

Large corporations bought more computers that use Intel's most expensive chips, an encouraging sign for the economy that emerged from Intel's second-quarter numbers, reported Tuesday after the stock market closed. Corporations have been stingy on upgrading their workers' personal computers, a trend Intel is now seeing reverse. Intel gets most of its profit from the sale of chips that go into PCs.

Intel's results topped Wall Street's forecasts, and the company raised its guidance. Its shares rose more than 7 percent in extended trading.

Intel's net income was $2.89 billion, or 51 cents per share, in the quarter ended June 26. Analysts expected 43 cents per share. The last time Intel's quarterly net income topped $2.5 billion was in 2000 during the dot-com heyday, when Internet fever fueled spectacular computer sales.

In the year-ago period, Intel lost $398 million, or 7 cents per share, when it paid a $1.45 billion fine in Europe over antitrust violations.

Revenue was $10.77 billion in the latest period, above the $10.25 billion expected by analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters.

Intel's third-quarter forecast was stronger than expected. It said it expects revenue of $11.20 billion to $12 billion. Analysts were projecting $10.92 billion.

Intel's profit forecast also got a lift. Intel now expects gross profit margin -- a key measure of a company's ability to control costs -- of 64 percent to 68 percent of revenue. Its previous forecast was for 62 percent to 66 percent.

Source: Yahoo Finance
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Intel-posts-biggest-quarterly-apf-3311126180.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=

FBMKLCI - Technical Commentary 13/07/10

FBMKLCI was opened with gap up of 3.13 points at 1329.87 and it traded sideway above yesterday high before it pushed up another few more points to closed at 1332.87 (+6.13, 0.46%). The CI seems to be bullish biased now however the trading volume is a concern for FBMKLCI to sustain its uptrend. Right now it broke up the L1 trend line and looking to break the next hurdles at 1335 and 1350 resistance levels. At the time of writing, FKLI (KLCI futures) surged 10 points at 1338.5 and bidding at 1339 for the closing. If it is not manipulation, FBMKLCI will have a chance to move higher tomorrow. As we mentioned last week, there are many counters are pending to form a bullish divergence and if the market is bullish, those counters will surge higher. Today we saw some bullish divergence counters are moving up. They are SCOMIMR, SCOMI and GENM.

The overall market’s trend is considers as bullish today as there were 363 up counters and 283 down counters with the market total traded volume decreased by 5.9% to 574 MIL shares. The market volume is slightly below the 40 days VMA today; this means that the investors still caution about the current market rebound.

Today’s FBMKLCI top 5 gaining components are GENM, PLUS, DIGI, RHBCAP and MMCCORP. The top 3 lagging components are HLFG, TANJONG and BAT.

FBMKLCI Technical Indicators
FBMKLCI stays above the Bollinger Middle Band 10 (BMB10). The Bollinger Band 10 (BB10) had opened 12%; this means that FBMKLCI is bullish biased.

RSI hooks up again at 56.64; this indicates FBMKLCI is slightly bullish biased.

STC %K increases to 100% and the %D increases to 82.02, this indicates FBMKLCI
is bullish biased and also indicates CI counters is over bought.

Momentum hooks up above 0%, this indicates FBMKLCI is bullish biased.

The MACD line crosses the trigger line and the histogram crosses Zero, this indicates FBMKLCI is bullish biased.

Summary
All the indicators indicate FBMKLCI is bullish biased. However our market is depend on the performance of global market especially Dow Jones Industrial. Tomorrow (Wed morning) Intel is going to report its Q2 financial result. If its Q2 result and Q3 forecast are positive, I believe it will affect our local technology counters like UNISEM, ENG, NOTION, MPI, GTRONICS and etc. However if the Q3 forecast is below analysts forecast, then most likely those counters will move down or sideway.
The nearest possible resistance levels for FBMKLCI is 1335 and 1350 whereas the nearest possible supports levels are the L1 trend line and 1325 (FR 76.4%). Please refer to the picture below.

FBMKLCI - Technical Commentary 12/07/10

FBMKLCI was open slightly below last session at 1323.91 (-0.4) however it started to ramp up after 5 minutes and it went as high as 1331.74 (+7.43). The buy rate started to drop in the afternoon session due to profit taking and finally closed at 1326.74 (+2.43, +0.18%). The index had broken out the 1325 (FR 76.4%) resistance level and now 1325 will became the support level for FBMKLCI. The CI still considered as consolidation because the Bollinger10 is flat (open from –2% to 0%).

The overall market’s trend is considers as bullish today as there were 371 up counters and 265 down counters with the market total traded volume decreased by 8.1% to 610 MIL shares. The market volume is slightly below the 40 days VMA today; this means that the investors still caution about the current market rebound.

Today’s FBMKLCI top 5 gaining components are PPB, MAYBANK, AXIATA, PLUS and RHBCAP. The top 5 lagging components are GENTING, TANJONG, PETDAG, MAS, and BJTOTO.

FBMKLCI Technical Indicators
FBMKLCI stays above the Bollinger Middle Band 10 (BMB10). The Bollinger Band 10 (BB10) had opened slightly from -2% to 0%; this means that FBMKLCI is considered as consolidation.

RSI dropped below 50% at 44.43; this indicates FBMKLCI is in the neutral zone and slightly bearish biased.

STC %K increases to 86.62 and the %D increases to 67.6, this indicates FBMKLCI
is bullish biased.

Momentum is at 0%, this indicates FBMKLCI is considered as neutral.

The MACD is trending up slightly and the histogram had formed a rounding bottom; this indicates FBMKLCI is bullish biased.

Summary
The indicators for FBMKLCI are mixed, but the primary indicators like EMA and Bollinger10 indicate the index is consolidation with slightly bullish biased.
The nearest possible resistance levels for FBMKLCI is the L1 trend line and the previous 1335 whereas the nearest possible supports levels are 1325 (FR 76.4%) and 1309 (FR 61.8%). The Bollinger Mid band and the EMA14/21/31 also act as the support levels for FBMKLCI. Please refer to the picture below.

Week Ahead: Stocks Could See Bigger Earnings Season Pop

Second-quarter earnings season is likely to create a positive backdrop for stocks, at least temporarily. A handful of industrial, financial, transport and tech companies will set the early tone for the quarter in the coming week. The first Dow component to report is Alcoa, reporting after the market close Monday, along with railroad company CSX. Intel reports Tuesday, and Google and J.P. Morgan are Thursday. General Electric, Bank of America and Citigroup all release results Friday.

Stocks this past week advanced more than 5 percent, the best performance in a year, in part in anticipation that those earnings will be strong. But it's the market correction that started in late April that has made the focus on this quarter's earnings reports even more intense, as traders look to find signs from corporate America that the economy is not as weak as investors fear. In addition to earnings, there is a string of fresh economic reports, including retail sales and inflation data. The Treasury also plans to auction $69 billion in 3-year and 10-year notes and 30-year bonds next week.

Please click this link for more details
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38179434

Counters to Watch for MON 12-JUL:

We have observed many counters are forming or formed bullish divergence and some even followed with higher low patterns. Should our KLSE still could sustain the current momentum on the uptrend direction, then the following counters could be in your watch list to consider:















Other counters for more aggressive traders to consider BUT MUST prepare your trading plan to monitor closely are: KSENG, UNISEM, AIRASIA, JERNEH, UEMLAND, GAMUDA, FITTERS, 3A, TCHONG, FABER, TIME, TIMECOM, AXIATA, TITAN, ...