Cases study 30/1/10

The examples below are for share learning and case study only. We wish that you learn something from this blog and not means for you to buy them.

3A broke out the trend line but fails to stay above it (also refer to 29/01 case study)
TSM broke out, continues to break new high (also refer to 29/01 case study)









CIHLDG and KENANGA just broke out resistance, can they made another new high?









Linear and LTKM broke out from the Long Flag, can they sustain?

Technical Commentary 29/01/10

Due to overnight Dow Jones dropped about 115 points, this morning KLCI30 open with gap down from yesterday closing level 1264.5. The market selling was aggressive in the 1st 20 mins. There after KLCI hover around 1255 most of the day until 3:45pm, it was pushed up about 4 points in 10 mins. It was then hover around 1258 and closed at 1259.16 (-5.35, -0.42%). KLCI nearest resistance level now is 1264.5; yesterday’s closing level and the next resistance level is 1272. The support level is still remains as 1255. We are now confirmed that 1255 is a solid support level for KLCI. If 1255 is broken, then KLCI and the market will change from up trend to down trend in short term.

The market’s volume was increased by 4.1%, traded with 973 MIL shares. The volume is now slightly above 40 days VMA. This means that the markets’ volume is sufficient to support the selling pressure. There are 252 up counters and 456 down counters. The candlestick of KLCI formed a bullish abandoned baby and fell below BB20 lower band during the closing today. There will be a possible technical rebound when the market re-opens on next Tuesday.

FBMKLCI Indicators
Bollinger band expanded another 20% from yesterday with the candlestick stay below BBMB, indicates KLCI30 is very bearish.
RSI fell below 30, closed at 27.68.3, indicates KLCI30 is still quite bearish.
STC %K and %D dipped below 10, indicates KLCI30 short term is oversold. There will be a technical rebound soon.
The MACD line hooked down further and the histogram still not form a rounding bottom. This indicates KLCI 30 still bearish biased. If the histogram started to form a rounding bottom, KLCI30 will has a chance to rebound.
All the indicators above are bearish biased for FBMKLCI. Please refer to the picture of FBMKLCI daily chart for your reference.

The mid-term view of KLCI’s bullish trend still intact unless the support level 1250 is broken. However we notice the MACD and RSI indicators both started to hook down. But these indicators normally run faster that the chart, we still believe the critical points 1250 is the important pivot point to determine the direction of KLCI's mid-term trend. Please refer to the picture of FBMKLCI weekly chart for your reference.

Technical Commentary 28/01/10

The selling on KLCI30 was softened today, infect there are many 2nd and 3rd liners rebounded technically today. However the KLCI30 was traded in a narrow range and stay slightly negative for most of the day. KLCI dipped -1.26, -0.1% and closed at 1264.51. KLCI nearest resistance level now is 1272 and next is 1288. The support level is 1255.

The market’s volume was decreased by 13.6%, traded with 936 MIL shares. The volume now is just touching the 40 days VMA. In order for the market and KLCI30 to rebound further, the trading volume must stay above 40 days VMA. There are 534 up counters and 190 down counters. If KLCI were to rebound in the next few days, it has to break above today’s high 1268 and 1272. Otherwise a lower high will be formed. We still have not see a lower low unless it further breaks down 1255, the critical support level.

FBMKLCI Indicators
Bollinger band expanded another 26% with the candlestick stay below BBMB, indicates KLCI30 is bearish.
RSI flats at 31.3, indicates KLCI30 is still bearish.
STC %K dipped below 10 @6.02 and %D below 20 @14.91, indicates KLCI30 short term is bearish and near to oversold. There will be a technical rebound soon.
The MACD line hooked down further and the histogram still not form a rounding bottom. This indicates KLCI 30 still bearish biased. If the histogram started to form a rounding bottom, KLCI30 will has a chance to rebound.
All the indicators above are bearish biased for FBMKLCI. Please refer to the picture of FBMKLCI for your reference.









For case study only
Break out and almost breakout counters

Technical Commentary 27/01/10

FBMKLCI was started with gap down in the morning. The selling was continued for 45 mins and then started with small rebounce and consolidates until 3pm. The heavy selling restart again at 3pm toward 4:45pm with volume increases. The market was volatile today. Please refer to the 5 mins chart. KLCI dipped -17.25, -1.34% and closed at 1265.77. KLCI nearest resistance level now is 1272-1274. The support level is 1255-1253.

The market’s volume was decreased by 13.4%, traded with 1.08 Bil shares. This anticipate the selling still heavy however on the other hand there are still many investors willing to buy the shares at discounted price. There are 168 up counters and 618 down counters. If KLCI were to rebound in the next one to few days, it has to break above 1272 and stay above it. Otherwise a lower high will be formed. The KLCI short-term will turn down trend.

FBMKLCIs' Indicators
Bollinger band expanded another 65% with the candlestick stay below BBMB, indicates KLCI30 is very bearish.
RSI dipped again and closed at 30, indicates KLCI30 is very bearish.
STC %K dipped below 10 and %D below 30, indicates KLCI30 short term is very bearish and near to oversold. This signal a near term technical rebounce.
MACD line hooked down and crosses the trigger line, indicates KLCI30 short term is bearish biased.

All the indicators above are bearish biased for FBMKLCI. Please refer to the picture of FBMKLCI for your reference.

By switching the chart over to mid-term, the price had broken down the BBMB and the support 1272. The RSI dipped below 60 and the STC %K had touches 30, indicates mid-term trend is bearish biased. The mid-term support level now is 1250 and the resistance is 1272. Please refer to the chart below.

Monitor Daiboci and Tomypak

Refer to my posting on 13/11/2009, both stocks have same business and good fundamental. Due to low liquidity, less investors like to buy. However more people discover these stocks now. Both stocks were surging up yesterday. The short and mid term trends are bullish. I don't means you need to buy now, keep them in your watch list and buy at the good timing. Because of low liquidity, they are good only for mid to long term investment. Tomypak closed 2.63 and Daiboci closed 3.10 yesterday. Please refer to the charts below.

Posted on 13/11/2009==========================
Both company dealing with packaging materials. Good fundamental and paying good dividen. The only problem is liquidity, low volume. So it is good for mid to long term investment only.

Daiboci
Share price 2.22
PE: 7.74
Past 3 years dividen yield
2008 - None
2007 - 11.54%
2006 - 7.55%

Tomypak
Share price 1.82
PE: 4.32
Past 3 years dividen yield
2008 - 7.89%
2007 - 2.38%
2006 - 3.23%

Technical Commentary 26/01/10

The market was started with technical rebound in the morning however after traded for an hour, the market started to plunge. It was started with regional market especially when Hang Seng was open at 10am. The selling was very aggressive from 10am to 3pm. Please refer the 5mins chart below for your reference. The selling was slowing down after 3pm with a small rebound and sideway but KLCI still dipped -13.77, -1.06% and closed at 1283.02. KLCI nearest resistance level is 1294, close to BBMB. The support level now is 1272 and Fibo 1267

The market’s volume was increased by 25.5% to 1.25 Bil shares. This means that the selling was heavy today. There are 152 up counters and 708 down counters. If the KLCI were to rebound in the next one to few days, it has to break above 1294 and stay above it. Otherwise a Head and shoulder pattern and lower high will be formed. The KLCI short-term will be down trend.

FBMKLCIs' Indicators
Bollinger band expanded 28% with the candlestick stay below BBMB, indicates KLCI30 is bearish.
RSI dipped below 50 at 45.66, indicates KLCI30 is bearish.
STC %K dipped below 30 threshold at 16.17, indicates KLCI30 short term is bearish biased.
MACD line hooked down and crosses the trigger line, indicates KLCI30 short term is bearish biased.

All the indicators above are bearish biased for FBMKLCI. Please refer to the picture of FBMKLCI for your reference.

By switching the chart over to mid-term; the price has not broken down the BBMB yet, it just sits above it. However the RSI and the STC %K had dipped below 70 threshold, indicates mid-trend could turn bearish. The mid-term support level is 1271. If it broken down below 1271, this means the mid-term trend will turn bearish.

Technical Commentary 25/01/10

There was no panic selling in the market today after DJI was dipped more than 200 points last Friday. FBMKLCI was dipped as much as 7.66 points before pushing up higher at the closing at 1296.79 (-3.66 points, -0.3%). The market’s volumes further reduced by 1.2% to 996 Mil shares. However a lower volume means the correction is healthy. There are 8 CI components turn green in the afternoon to neutralize the FBMKLCI to dip more. There are 266 up counters and 441 down counters. The candlestick of KLCI form a hammer shape during the closing, this signal a possible technical rebound tomorrow. However it is still resisted by BBMB at 1299. If the CI breaks and stay above the BBMB 1299 and the resistance 1300, the CI will has a chance to grow further. If the CI fails to stay above the BBMB, the short term view of CI will be bearish biased.

As mentioned by JK on the Friday’s report, there are many counters were T+4 and T+7. Rubber stocks like Supermx, Adventa are in T+7 and T+8 respectively, they are rebounded strongly toward the closing. If the CI rebound tomorrow, we expect many other counters will rebound technically. However the US and regional market is still uncertain, any rebound is a good chance to exit and leave the market temporary.

FBMKLCIs' Indicators
Bollinger band contracted 4% indicates KLCI30 is slightly bearish biased.
RSI dipped below 70 thresholds at 67.87, indicates KLCI30 is slightly bearish biased.
STC %K dipped below 70 threshold at 47.33, indicates KLCI30 short term is bearish biased.
MACD line hooked down and crosses the trigger line, indicates KLCI30 short term is bearish biased.
KLCI nearest resistance level is at BBMB=1299 and the break down support level at 1300. The support level now is 1288.

All the indicators above are bearish biased for FBMKLCI. Please refer to the picture of FBMKLCI for your reference.

FKLI Spot Month Turn Bearish Divergence

There is 90% chances the FKLI spot month will turn bearish on coming Monday if the MACD unable to hook up. A followup Head and Shoulder likely to form if it rebounded and form a lower high. We advice you exit "Long" position or set a sell stop & limit at 1290 to 1286 to preserve your capital. KLCI also has a chance to form a bearish divergence signal if the MACD cannot hook up on time. Please refer to the pictures below.