Thursday, December 17, 2009

Time to collect platation stocks

After the rubber glove stocks flying sky high, the next sector we are looking is plantation stocks. We have a good reasons to buy plantation stocks for mid to long term. Firstly because of the CPO price was picking up >RM2500/ton sine Dec 09. As you know most of the plantation stocks are depend on the CPO price. I don't know you aware or not, our CPO price once traded above RM4000 per ton on Mar 2008. Those plantation stocks' prices also fly sky-high at that time. When the CPO bubble burst, the plantation stocks' earning started to fall rapidly. The CPO price was below 1400/ton on Oct 2008. This was hurting the earning result of the plantation stocks. The CPO price slowly recovers, the Dec CPO price is now >RM2500 per ton and the trend is expected to rise further above RM2600 per ton. The CPO price can be affected by many factors like below:
The global economic hot or cool, we expect the economic is going to pick up soon.
The Soya bean price in North/South America, under or over production, the weather and the inventory of the Soya bean oil.
The Agriculture commodity price
The USD, a weaker USD will cause the commodity price to rise
The CPO exports data
The CPO inventory data
The CPO production data
The Crude Oil has less impact now. The crude oil was >USD100 in 2008 that cause the CPO price to went up >RM4000/ton. This is because if the Crude oil price too high, people started to think of bio-diesel that derive from the vegetable oil to replace the Crude oil.

By looking at the CPO future, the Jan 2010's future is more than RM2550/ton and the Mar 2010's future is more than RM2600/ton. So we think it is time for us to pick up some of the good plantation counters now. We will start studying each counter from now. You are welcome to give us your suggestions and your opinions. Please see the attached picture of the CPO future prices from Jan 2010 onward.