Cases study 30/1/10

The examples below are for share learning and case study only. We wish that you learn something from this blog and not means for you to buy them.

3A broke out the trend line but fails to stay above it (also refer to 29/01 case study)
TSM broke out, continues to break new high (also refer to 29/01 case study)









CIHLDG and KENANGA just broke out resistance, can they made another new high?









Linear and LTKM broke out from the Long Flag, can they sustain?

Technical Commentary 29/01/10

Due to overnight Dow Jones dropped about 115 points, this morning KLCI30 open with gap down from yesterday closing level 1264.5. The market selling was aggressive in the 1st 20 mins. There after KLCI hover around 1255 most of the day until 3:45pm, it was pushed up about 4 points in 10 mins. It was then hover around 1258 and closed at 1259.16 (-5.35, -0.42%). KLCI nearest resistance level now is 1264.5; yesterday’s closing level and the next resistance level is 1272. The support level is still remains as 1255. We are now confirmed that 1255 is a solid support level for KLCI. If 1255 is broken, then KLCI and the market will change from up trend to down trend in short term.

The market’s volume was increased by 4.1%, traded with 973 MIL shares. The volume is now slightly above 40 days VMA. This means that the markets’ volume is sufficient to support the selling pressure. There are 252 up counters and 456 down counters. The candlestick of KLCI formed a bullish abandoned baby and fell below BB20 lower band during the closing today. There will be a possible technical rebound when the market re-opens on next Tuesday.

FBMKLCI Indicators
Bollinger band expanded another 20% from yesterday with the candlestick stay below BBMB, indicates KLCI30 is very bearish.
RSI fell below 30, closed at 27.68.3, indicates KLCI30 is still quite bearish.
STC %K and %D dipped below 10, indicates KLCI30 short term is oversold. There will be a technical rebound soon.
The MACD line hooked down further and the histogram still not form a rounding bottom. This indicates KLCI 30 still bearish biased. If the histogram started to form a rounding bottom, KLCI30 will has a chance to rebound.
All the indicators above are bearish biased for FBMKLCI. Please refer to the picture of FBMKLCI daily chart for your reference.

The mid-term view of KLCI’s bullish trend still intact unless the support level 1250 is broken. However we notice the MACD and RSI indicators both started to hook down. But these indicators normally run faster that the chart, we still believe the critical points 1250 is the important pivot point to determine the direction of KLCI's mid-term trend. Please refer to the picture of FBMKLCI weekly chart for your reference.

Technical Commentary 28/01/10

The selling on KLCI30 was softened today, infect there are many 2nd and 3rd liners rebounded technically today. However the KLCI30 was traded in a narrow range and stay slightly negative for most of the day. KLCI dipped -1.26, -0.1% and closed at 1264.51. KLCI nearest resistance level now is 1272 and next is 1288. The support level is 1255.

The market’s volume was decreased by 13.6%, traded with 936 MIL shares. The volume now is just touching the 40 days VMA. In order for the market and KLCI30 to rebound further, the trading volume must stay above 40 days VMA. There are 534 up counters and 190 down counters. If KLCI were to rebound in the next few days, it has to break above today’s high 1268 and 1272. Otherwise a lower high will be formed. We still have not see a lower low unless it further breaks down 1255, the critical support level.

FBMKLCI Indicators
Bollinger band expanded another 26% with the candlestick stay below BBMB, indicates KLCI30 is bearish.
RSI flats at 31.3, indicates KLCI30 is still bearish.
STC %K dipped below 10 @6.02 and %D below 20 @14.91, indicates KLCI30 short term is bearish and near to oversold. There will be a technical rebound soon.
The MACD line hooked down further and the histogram still not form a rounding bottom. This indicates KLCI 30 still bearish biased. If the histogram started to form a rounding bottom, KLCI30 will has a chance to rebound.
All the indicators above are bearish biased for FBMKLCI. Please refer to the picture of FBMKLCI for your reference.









For case study only
Break out and almost breakout counters

Technical Commentary 27/01/10

FBMKLCI was started with gap down in the morning. The selling was continued for 45 mins and then started with small rebounce and consolidates until 3pm. The heavy selling restart again at 3pm toward 4:45pm with volume increases. The market was volatile today. Please refer to the 5 mins chart. KLCI dipped -17.25, -1.34% and closed at 1265.77. KLCI nearest resistance level now is 1272-1274. The support level is 1255-1253.

The market’s volume was decreased by 13.4%, traded with 1.08 Bil shares. This anticipate the selling still heavy however on the other hand there are still many investors willing to buy the shares at discounted price. There are 168 up counters and 618 down counters. If KLCI were to rebound in the next one to few days, it has to break above 1272 and stay above it. Otherwise a lower high will be formed. The KLCI short-term will turn down trend.

FBMKLCIs' Indicators
Bollinger band expanded another 65% with the candlestick stay below BBMB, indicates KLCI30 is very bearish.
RSI dipped again and closed at 30, indicates KLCI30 is very bearish.
STC %K dipped below 10 and %D below 30, indicates KLCI30 short term is very bearish and near to oversold. This signal a near term technical rebounce.
MACD line hooked down and crosses the trigger line, indicates KLCI30 short term is bearish biased.

All the indicators above are bearish biased for FBMKLCI. Please refer to the picture of FBMKLCI for your reference.

By switching the chart over to mid-term, the price had broken down the BBMB and the support 1272. The RSI dipped below 60 and the STC %K had touches 30, indicates mid-term trend is bearish biased. The mid-term support level now is 1250 and the resistance is 1272. Please refer to the chart below.

Monitor Daiboci and Tomypak

Refer to my posting on 13/11/2009, both stocks have same business and good fundamental. Due to low liquidity, less investors like to buy. However more people discover these stocks now. Both stocks were surging up yesterday. The short and mid term trends are bullish. I don't means you need to buy now, keep them in your watch list and buy at the good timing. Because of low liquidity, they are good only for mid to long term investment. Tomypak closed 2.63 and Daiboci closed 3.10 yesterday. Please refer to the charts below.

Posted on 13/11/2009==========================
Both company dealing with packaging materials. Good fundamental and paying good dividen. The only problem is liquidity, low volume. So it is good for mid to long term investment only.

Daiboci
Share price 2.22
PE: 7.74
Past 3 years dividen yield
2008 - None
2007 - 11.54%
2006 - 7.55%

Tomypak
Share price 1.82
PE: 4.32
Past 3 years dividen yield
2008 - 7.89%
2007 - 2.38%
2006 - 3.23%

Technical Commentary 26/01/10

The market was started with technical rebound in the morning however after traded for an hour, the market started to plunge. It was started with regional market especially when Hang Seng was open at 10am. The selling was very aggressive from 10am to 3pm. Please refer the 5mins chart below for your reference. The selling was slowing down after 3pm with a small rebound and sideway but KLCI still dipped -13.77, -1.06% and closed at 1283.02. KLCI nearest resistance level is 1294, close to BBMB. The support level now is 1272 and Fibo 1267

The market’s volume was increased by 25.5% to 1.25 Bil shares. This means that the selling was heavy today. There are 152 up counters and 708 down counters. If the KLCI were to rebound in the next one to few days, it has to break above 1294 and stay above it. Otherwise a Head and shoulder pattern and lower high will be formed. The KLCI short-term will be down trend.

FBMKLCIs' Indicators
Bollinger band expanded 28% with the candlestick stay below BBMB, indicates KLCI30 is bearish.
RSI dipped below 50 at 45.66, indicates KLCI30 is bearish.
STC %K dipped below 30 threshold at 16.17, indicates KLCI30 short term is bearish biased.
MACD line hooked down and crosses the trigger line, indicates KLCI30 short term is bearish biased.

All the indicators above are bearish biased for FBMKLCI. Please refer to the picture of FBMKLCI for your reference.

By switching the chart over to mid-term; the price has not broken down the BBMB yet, it just sits above it. However the RSI and the STC %K had dipped below 70 threshold, indicates mid-trend could turn bearish. The mid-term support level is 1271. If it broken down below 1271, this means the mid-term trend will turn bearish.

Technical Commentary 25/01/10

There was no panic selling in the market today after DJI was dipped more than 200 points last Friday. FBMKLCI was dipped as much as 7.66 points before pushing up higher at the closing at 1296.79 (-3.66 points, -0.3%). The market’s volumes further reduced by 1.2% to 996 Mil shares. However a lower volume means the correction is healthy. There are 8 CI components turn green in the afternoon to neutralize the FBMKLCI to dip more. There are 266 up counters and 441 down counters. The candlestick of KLCI form a hammer shape during the closing, this signal a possible technical rebound tomorrow. However it is still resisted by BBMB at 1299. If the CI breaks and stay above the BBMB 1299 and the resistance 1300, the CI will has a chance to grow further. If the CI fails to stay above the BBMB, the short term view of CI will be bearish biased.

As mentioned by JK on the Friday’s report, there are many counters were T+4 and T+7. Rubber stocks like Supermx, Adventa are in T+7 and T+8 respectively, they are rebounded strongly toward the closing. If the CI rebound tomorrow, we expect many other counters will rebound technically. However the US and regional market is still uncertain, any rebound is a good chance to exit and leave the market temporary.

FBMKLCIs' Indicators
Bollinger band contracted 4% indicates KLCI30 is slightly bearish biased.
RSI dipped below 70 thresholds at 67.87, indicates KLCI30 is slightly bearish biased.
STC %K dipped below 70 threshold at 47.33, indicates KLCI30 short term is bearish biased.
MACD line hooked down and crosses the trigger line, indicates KLCI30 short term is bearish biased.
KLCI nearest resistance level is at BBMB=1299 and the break down support level at 1300. The support level now is 1288.

All the indicators above are bearish biased for FBMKLCI. Please refer to the picture of FBMKLCI for your reference.

FKLI Spot Month Turn Bearish Divergence

There is 90% chances the FKLI spot month will turn bearish on coming Monday if the MACD unable to hook up. A followup Head and Shoulder likely to form if it rebounded and form a lower high. We advice you exit "Long" position or set a sell stop & limit at 1290 to 1286 to preserve your capital. KLCI also has a chance to form a bearish divergence signal if the MACD cannot hook up on time. Please refer to the pictures below.

Bearish Signal on Regional Market

Dow Jones down another 216.9 points last night, this will impact our market next week. Further investigate on DJI, it had formed a Bearish divergence after it had fell for 3 consecutive days. If DJI rebounded next week with lower high, this means the 11 months long bull market had come to the end. Since the world market and KLSE all started to run on Mar 2009, we believe they will follow the leader and the bull will be ended. Please click and see below picture.









Hang Seng Index had confirmed ended the 11 months long bullish market after it had formed a Bearish divergence, Head and Shoulder, Lower High, Double Top and Lower Low. Since DJI and HSI, our big brother and our big brother HSI in Asia are on the downtrend, I believe all other bourses including KLSE cannot escape from that. Please refer to the picture of HSI below.

Technical Commentary 22-Jan-10

Due to overnight DJI plunged -213pts (-2%), the whole Asia bourses also follow. Malaysia KLSE also cannot escape from such dip. Our FBMKLCI intraday down to the lowest 1296.44 (-11.92, 0.9%) but finally closed at 1300.45 (-7.91, 0.6%). Most of the KLCI top contributors do not boost up the index. Rather, the re-bounced activities come in after 3:30pm contributed by rubber glove group, some technology counters, and active 2nd & 3rd liners that help to accelerate the re-bounce momentum and bring the market volume close to yesterday by merely down 5.4%, traded at 1.008 billion shares. There are 245 up counters and 531 down counters.

In fact, FBMKLCI intraday has fallen below the Bollinger Middle band at 1298 and further down to Fibo 23.5% level (1296) where it found the support level and re-bounced from there. As mentioned in yesterday’s technical commentary, many counters like rubber stocks and 2nd/3rd liners had been corrected for 3 to 6 days. Today happen to be T+4 and T+7 days, after so much sell off and force selling activities from morning 9:00am until 3:30pm, those rubber stocks and 2nd/3rd liners in deed re-bounce as anticipated.

Short term FBMKLCI indicators:
Bollinger band contracted -4%, it indicates KLCI30 is in consolidation;
RSI drops to 73.78 from 85.86, indicates KLCI30 is still bullish intact;
STC %K drops to 63.76 from 99.28, %D drops to 85.96 from 92.29, it indicates short term KLCI30 is slightly off bullish biased;
MACD line hook down almost crossing down, it indicates KLCI30 is still uptrend intact;
KLCI nearest resistance level is 1308.52;
KLCI critical support level ranging from 1300 and 1298 (the Bollinger mid-band) to 23.5% Fibo level (1296) as show in the chart below;
All the indicators above are mixed today but the uptrend still intact. The critical support levels MUST be observed cautiously.

In weekly technical analysis, the MACD forms a rounding bottom, this indicates KLCI30 mid-term view is bullish biased. The mid-term support level is 1278. However, we found that other indexes like FBM-Mesdaq, plantation, construction, property, industrial, trading & services, and technology are bearish biased in short-term. Finance and consumer indexes remain bullish biased.

Overall, our KLSE market prospective still up trend intact. But the short term critical support level MUST be observed cautiously. Because many of our Asia indices are just breaking down of their respective support trend lines and their respective MACD are crossing downward, that imply they are just into correction. (Major or Minor? let see next week).

Technical Commentary 21/01/10

FBMKLCI continues its up trend and broke yesterday’s high 1307.94, closed at 1308.38 (+1.74 points, +0.13%). The market’s volumes reduced by 20.5% to 1.065 Billion shares. KLCI30 components remain active. As mentioned yesterday, we expect lower liners to sell off today after they had been pushed up last couple of weeks.

Today we saw heavy correction had spread to Technology stocks and rubber gloves. I notice this process was repeating since Oct and Nov 2009, keeping the KLCI index flat or uptrend but heavy correction on the lower liners. Many counters like rubber stocks and 2nd/3rd liners had been corrected for 3 to 6 days. I expect a technical rebound on some of the lower liners tomorrow and next week. There are 203 up counters and 573 down counters.

FBMKLCIs' Indicators
Bollinger band expanded 26% indicates KLCI30 is bullish biased.
RSI increased to 85.86, indicates KLCI30 is bullish biased.
STC increased with %K=99.28, %D=92.29. Indicates KLCI30 is bullish biased.
MACD line hook up slightly, Indicates KLCI30 is slightly bullish.
KLCI nearest resistance level remain at 1353.96. The support level is 1300 and 1298 (the Bollinger mid-band).

All the indicators above are bullish biased for FBMKLCI. We will see more upside for KLCI. By switching the chart to weekly, the MACD started to form a rounding bottom, this indicates KLCI30 mid-term view is bullish biased. However we found that other indexes like FBM-Mesdaq, plantation, construction, property, industrial and technology are bearish biased in short-term. Finance, consumer and trading & services index remain bullish biased.









Review on our stocks pick today
Proton continues its uptrend for 2nd day. The stock price further increased 5.4% to closed at 4.33. The immediate resistance level is 4.60 and the support level is Fibo 4.16 and 4.14. The BB further expands 124% and the volume increased by 86% (4.4 mil shares). All other indicators like STC and RSI are bullish biased. If the daily volume remains active like more than 3-4 mil shares tomorrow and next week, I believe there is no problem to break the 4.60 critical level. Once it broke 4.60, the next critical resistance level is 4.93, which created on 20/11/2007. The mid-term trend had turn bullish after it had broken out the symmetrical triangle. If the regional and KLCI index remain positive, Potentially Proton will break 4.60 soon.

Harta slightly affected by the heavy correction today, nevertheless, the midterm uptrend still intact. On the low risk stocks watch, Axiata, Spsetia, HLFG and TM mid-term are still bullish. On the medium risk stocks, Gamuda and MPHB unable to break out the resistance yet due to heavy correction on lower liners. Despite heavy correction on lower liners, Jaycorp continue its uptrend for another 8.6% however we don't recommend a buy tomorrow as it already up for 2 days. Mid-term view for Jaycorp is bullish. KFIMA was up in the morning however it cannot stand the pressure and corrected for 3.9%. Short-term view for KFIMA is bearish. Tchong is side today; it is not affected by the correction.

Other stocks to watch

Lower risk for conservative investors
Topglove, Maybank.

Medium Risk investors
Dayang and TSM. Monitor Rubber stocks online like Supermx, Adventa, Ruberex and Latexx.They could rebound soon. Continue to monitor GAMUDA break out 2.94 and MPHB break out 1.94.

High Risk investors
NONE, not recommended to buy any high risk stocks at this time

Take note: Always enforce cut loss policy if your stock broke down the support level

Technical Commentary on KLCI 20/01/10

FBMKLCI continues its uptrend and broke out 1305 resistance level today. It temporary sit above it at 1306.62 (+6.27 points, +0.5%). The market’s volumes increased 5.6% to 1.3394 Billion shares. It is good news that there are 5 CI heavy weight counters like Axiata, TM, GenM, Maybank and IOICorp are contributing the top 30 volumes. This means that KLCI30 components are getting more active now. As mentioned yesterday, we expect lower liners to sell off today after they had been pushed up last couple of weeks. There are 333 up counters and 467 down counters. The lower liners are expected to correct further by sectors or rotationally.

FBMKLCIs' Indicators
Bollinger band expanded 28% indicates KLCI30 is bullish biased.
RSI increased to 78.92, indicates KLCI30 is bullish biased.
STC increased with %K=93.91, %D=90.41. Indicates KLCI30 is bullish biased.
MACD line hook up slightly, Indicates KLCI30 is bullish biased.
KLCI nearest resistance level is 1307.94 (today high) and 1353.96. The support level is 1305 and 1296.75 (the Bollinger mid-band).

All the indicators above are bullish biased for FBMKLCI. We will see more upside for KLCI. By switching the chart to weekly, the MACD start to form a rounding bottom, this indicates KLCI30 mid-term view is bullish biased.









Review our stock pick – Proton

Proton finally broke out from the symmetrical triangle today after it had been consolidated for about 3.5 months. The immediate resistance is 4.14 and the support is at the BBMB 3.96. We expect a higher resistance above 4.24 if it able to break 4.14 in the near term. The BB expanded 84% and the volume increased by 2800%. All other indicators like STC and RSI are getting bullish.
The volumes had resumed >2 mil shares after 22 trading days. This is good news for Proton. If the volumes can sustain above 2 mil shares, we believe Proton will potentially break up more resistances above and retest 4.60 again. Please review Proton daily chart below.









Stock Watch for this week

HARTA had been continously trending up for 3 days and hit another historical high at 7.71 today. The STC, MACD and the RSI are bullish biased but the BB still contracts 11% due to a correction happened 3 days ago. By looking at the mid-term view, all indicators are bullish biased. Due to the bullish view on Harta, we expect the stock price will go higher until it reach its fair value. The immediate resistance is today high at 7.71 and the support is at BBMB 7.07. Please review Harta weekly chart below.









Other stocks to consider

Lower risk for conservative investors
SPSETIA, AXIATA, BJTOTO, GENM, HLFG, TM

Medium Risk investors
TCHONG, JAYCORP, KFIMA
GAMUDA (watch for break out 2.93)
MPHB (watch for break out 1.94)

High Risk investors
NONE, not recommended to buy any high risk stocks at this time

Take note: Always enforce cut loss policy if your stock broke down the support level

Technical Commentary on KLCI 19/01/10

FBMKLCI broke out 1300 critical level today in the 1st time after 20 months and temporary sit above it at 1300.35 (+2.36 points, +0.2%). The market’s volumes increased slightly by 1.7% to 1.2689 Billion shares. The volume is flat but still above 40 days VMA. However it is normal to have a lower volume when the market is consolidating. Today’s market is mixed with many lower liners started profit taking in the afternoon session. There are 345 up counters and 405 down counters. The lower liners and high runners are expected to correct further by sectors or rotationally. On the other hand, buying activity still going on rotationally but getting less counters and less volume compare with last week. This show that many investors started to take caution and turn sideway.

FBMKLCIs' Indicators
Bollinger band further contracts 40% indicates KLCI30 still consolidate.
RSI retracted to 77.35, indicates KLCI30 is consolidate.
STC up slightly with %K=87.52, %D=88.06. Indicates KLCI30 are consolidating with slightly bullish biased.
MACD line still flat with rounding top, KLCI30 still consolidation.
KLCI nearest resistance level is 1302-1305. The support level is 1300 and 1295.6 (the Bollinger mid-band). The mid-term view on FBMKLCI30 still considered as bullish biased.









Stocks Watch for this week
Scomi had been corrected and consolidated for 9 days (T+9). If the market still active, very likely it will restart and breaks out the upper trend line. All indicators showing this stock are still in the consolidation phase. Now the stock price is close to the tip of the triangle, it can go either direction. Keep monitor for volume grow and Bollinger band expand. Buy only when price break up. If Scomi started to move, also take a look at the Scomi-WA.









Other stocks to consider

Lower risk for conservative investors
Harta, HLFG, Zhulian, Annjoo and IJMLand

Medium Risk investors
Kinstel, Pmetal, XDL, UMS, WZsteel and LBICap (T + 6)

High Risk investors
Bornoil, Eden, Tranmil and Comcorp

Take: Always efforce cut loss policy if your stock broke down the support

Technical Commentary on KLCI 18/01/10

Due to Dow Jones fell >100 points, FBMKLCI open with –12.33 points before slowly getting stable and closed at 1297.99 (-0.59 points, +0.05%) today. The market volume was decreased by 25.6% to 1.247 Billion shares. The trading volume was contracted because US and regional markets are having correction and the investors are getting a little caution. However it is normal to have a lesser volume when the market is consolidating. We noticed that not only 2nd & 3rd liners are still active but also Mesdaq (ACE market) counters are joining the pool. There are 396 up counters and 361 down counters. We saw PBB surging up 0.20 sens today and broke new high again. If PBB earning result out with flying color, it could lead the financial stocks and KLCL to break new high. Just wait for the result, should be this or next week.

FBMKLCI Indicators
Bollinger band contracted 22%, indicates KLCI30 consolidation
RSI closed at 79.91, indicates KLCI30 are consolidate with bullish biased.
STC %K=87.19, %D=83.15. Indicates KLCI30 are consolidate with bullish biased.
MACD flat with rounding top, KLCI30 consolidation.

KLCI nearest resistance level is remain at 1300. The support level is 1293 (the Bollinger mid-band). Nevertheless FBMKCI still bullish biased in the mid-term.









Review on our stocks pick

Redtone up 8% and closed at 0.405.The highest price today is 0.42 and right now 0.42 became the immediate resistance. If it can by pass the 0.42 this week, it will retest the next resistance at 0.48. All indicators still bullish, uptrend still intact.

GHLsys up 3.3% but it formed a doji star with volume decreses. Short term could turn side way to correction.

Stocks pick for tomorrow (Tues 19/1/10)

Hevea just broke out from the trend line today and closes at the highest price at 0.73, up 6.6%. The Bollinger band expanded 41%. The MACD line hooked up again, and all other indicators like STC and RSI are showing Hevea is bullish biased. The nearest resistance is 0.785 and the support is at the BBMB 0.68.









Keyasic is another stock to watch after it broke out from the symmetrical triangle. However Keyasic is facing a strong resistance at 0.52/0.53. If it could bypass these hurdles, the next resistance is the 200 days MA long term resistance at 0.55/0.56. Once these hurdles are clear, it will goes higher with less resistances. The Bollinger band expanded 55%. The MACD line hooked up again, and all other indicators like STC and RSI are showing Keyasci is bullish biased. The nearest resistance is 0.52/0.53 and the support is at 0.47/0.46.

Other stocks to consider

Low risk for conservative investors
HAIO, PBBank and PBBank-01

Medium Risk investors
Evergrn, Kencana and Faber

High Risk investors
LBS, Frontkn, DBE and Etitech

Take: Always efforce cut loss policy if your stock broke down the support

Stock watch for next week

Redtone just broke up from the trend line 0.35 on last Friday. Potentially it will retest the short term resistance 0.48. Bollinger band expanded 36% and MACD line hooked up again. Closing price on Friday is 0.375.

Other bullish indicators
Volume increased by 59%
RSI stay at 76.47
STC %K= 86.67, %D= 82.35
Momentum head up above zero
The nearest resistance is 0.385 and the support is 0.35.

GHLsys just broke up from the trend line 0.445 on last Friday. Potentially it will retest the short term resistance 0.48 and 0.56. Bollinger band expanded 57% and MACD line started to trending up. Closing price on Friday is 0.455.

Other indicators are getting more bullish:
Volume increased by 233%
RSI stay at 68.97 toward the threshold 70
STC %K= 64.29, %D= 49.09
Momentum head up above zero
The nearest resistance is 0.48, 0.56 and the support is 0.42

Other potential watch list

Insas, DRBHicom, GUH, Glomac, HAIO. CresBLD, KSL & Fajar

Technical Commentary 15/01/10

FBMKLCI closed at 1298.58 (+3.87 points, +0.3%) today. The market volume was increased by 4.4% to 1.677 Billion shares. The composite 30 components started to climb up. It tested the major resistance level 1300 at 1300.89 but fail to sustain above it. FBMKLCI 30 components still considered as consolidation with bullish biased. However, more than half of the 2nd and 3rd liners are started to correct. The market's volume still contributed by 2nd and 3rd liners. As we mentioned rubber glove industry was overheated yesterday, this morning this group of stocks were started to sell off and getting a heavier loss in the afternoon. They contributed in the top 10 ten losers.

There are 326 up counters and 467 down counters. The RSI up slightly at 81.84, the STC %K and %D increased slightly, closed at 91.93 and 81.43 respectively. The MACD line lift up slightly with histogram line formed a rounding top. The Bollinger band further reduces to 11% indicates that the CI 30 components still not totally get out from the consolidation phase soon. KLCI nearest resistance level is remain at 1300. The support level is standing at 1291 (the Bollinger mid-band). Nevertheless FBMKCI still bullish biased in the mid-term.

The technology stocks continue to push higher in the morning but mild profit taking in the afternoon. The rubber and steel stocks were under heavy correction today.

Technical Commentary on KLCI 14/01/10

FBMKLCI closed at 1294.71 (+5.2 points, +0.4%). The market volume was increased by 17% to 1.7556 Billion shares today. Finally we saw the composite 30 components started to move up. This is very good news for the bull market to sustain.

The market's volume not only contributed by 2nd and 3rd liners but also part of the CI components. This implies the institutional and the retail investors are actively involved in the market. FBMKLCI 30 components still considered as consolidation with bullish biased. However, the overall market is very bullish. Today, gainers mainly come from Industrial Products (i.e. Steel and glove/rubber themes.) Technology sectors (MPI, Unisem, AIC…etc) and other sectors like construction and properties started to move.

There are 575 up counters and 230 down counters. The RSI flat at 80.62, the STC %K hooked up again closed at 85.68 and %D flat at 80.69. The MACD stays flat with histogram line formed rounding top in 4th day. The Bollinger band further reduces to 2% indicates that the market will exit the consolidation stage soon. In fact, the KLCI tested the Bollinger middle band support at 1286 yesterday, and re-bounced during the last 30 minutes before market closed. Today the CI opened with slightly gap up and stay “green” until the closing. KLCI nearest resistance level is at 1300. The support level is standing at 1288 (the Bollinger mid-band), which is also the break out point on 05/01/10.

Although KLCI 30 components are consolidating but the non-KLCI stocks are pushing up rotationally. Thus, the overall market is still bullish biased with daily trading volume above VMA. Next themes to watch out are Wimax group (Redtone, Gapacket, GHLsys Mtone), plantation, finance, construction, and property that had consolidated some days already. Please review the KLCI chart on short term and long term.










Over heated sectors
We saw Technology group and Industrial sector are overheated. For the industrial sector, the main over heated counters are come from rubber gloves, Steel just started up and other active counters. Selectively good fundamental counters in the industrial sector will be the next rotational buy. In the Technologyy side, we saw Unisem and MPI were pushing hard today. Most of the technology stocks are overbought and there could be profit taking soon before moving up further.

The sectors that lag behind the Tech stocks and Industrial stocks are:
Trading and services
Construction
Property
Consumer
Plantation

Daily FBMKLCI Technical Analysis
13-Jan-10 (Wed):

FBMKLCI closed at 1289.51 (-3.34 points, -0.26%). The market volume was decreased by 10% to 1.5 Billion shares today. The market volume mainly still contributed by 2nd and 3rd liners, that’s imply the retail investors are actively involved in the market. The FBMKLCI 30 components still considered as consolidation with slightly bearish biased. However, the overall market is still not bearish yet. Today, gainers mainly come from Industrial Products (i.e. Auto, Steel and glove/rubber themes.) and Technology sectors.

There are 366 up counters and 436 down counters. The RSI increases 80, the STC %K hooked down touches 70 and %D at 80. The MACD stays flat with histogram line formed rounding top in 3rd day. The Bollinger band contracts by 6% indicates that the market still in consolidation stage. In fact, the KLCI tested the Bollinger middle band support at 1286, and re-bounced during the last 30 minutes before market closed.

KLCI nearest resistance level is at 1300. The support level is at 1286 (the Bollinger mid-band). Should KLCI were closed below 1286, the whole market analysis may have to review again.

Although KLCI 30 components are consolidating but the non-KLCI stocks are pushing up rotationally. Thus, the overall market is still bullish biased with daily trading volume above VMA. Next themes to watch out are Wimax group, plantation, construction, and property that had consolidated some days already.









Broke Up Counters:
Annjoo-WB, EPMB, Lsteel, ...









Prospective to break up counters:
Huaan, Kinstel, Ingress, ...











Watch List:

Frontkn could be doing a retest after broke up from 0.250 today. So the immediate support level is at 0.250 during this consolidation.

NYLEX broke out of Bollinger upper band during early session. It's pulled back toward the Bolliger upper band by closing on the dot at 0.820. It's still uptrend intact.

YTLE falls into consolidation stage with immediate support at 0.810, Bolliger middle band support.