Monday, January 11, 2010

Technical Commentary 11/01/10

KLCI closed at 1294.51 (+1.53, +0.12%). The market volume was increased by 35% to 1.4Billion shares today. The volume is well above 40 days VMA, this signal us the investors are more confident now and seem that the market is in the uptrend direction. The KLCI still considered as consolidation with slightly bullish biased. We hope that the market will attract more retail investors to come back like we saw in the beginning of 2007. We will see a “mini bull” if the market volume can exceed 1.2 Billion shares daily.

There are 476 up counters and 292 down counters. The RSI hooked up again and close to 70 level thresholds at 69.93, STC stays at %K at 85.73 and %D at 85. The MACD is slightly trending up and still indicating on the uptrend direction without forming a rounding top yet. The Bollinger band is slightly narrower by -5% compare to last Friday. This shows that the market is still consolidating with slightly bullish biased.

In short, all daily indicators show that KLCI short-term still bullish biased. KLCI nearest resistance level is at 1300. The support level is at 1288, the nearest broke out peak, and the next support level is at the Bollinger mid-band around 1283. Althogh KLCI 30 components are consolidate but the non KLCI stocks are pushing up rotationally. You can notice some stocks like Penta, IRCB, Takaso, PRDUREN and etc are pushing up and there is a new star everyday. They try to keep the KLCI flat or slightly uptrend, but keep pushing up a different stocks everyday.

In KLCI weekly analysis, MACD’s histogram has indicates round bottom. RSI stays above 70-level at 75.84, STC%K at 89.85 and %D at 77.11, momentum slightly flat above zero line. The Bollinger band has closed narrower by -6% compare to last week. As today is the 1st day of the week, we need to wait until Friday to see a clearer picture on the weekly trend. The possible upside resistance is 1300-1305 and then 1353. The possible support levels are 1288 (previous broke out peak) and 1274 (Bollinger middle band).



Review our watch list - Penta

We recommended Penta as one of our stocks watch for Monday 11/1/10. This morning it opened with gap up at 0.26 and went as high as 0.55 before closed at 0.53, up 116%. We are happy that not only we make big profit on Penta but also some of our investors in this Blog who follow us. I would like to say congratulation to all who follow our recommendation.

By analysing the weekly chart of Penta, It broke the major resistances at 0.21 and 0.235 on last Friday that trigger us to recommend this stock. Today it further broke three more resistances at 0.35, 0.45 and 0.53. Right now it stay at resistance 0.53. However 0.53 is now become an immediate support. The next resistances are 0.55 and 0.75. If profit taking is happening tomorrow, we are looking at next support level at 0.45 and Fibo 0.41. If 0.45 and 0.41 is not broken after T+3, we believe there is another round will come.

The Bollinger band expanded greatly to 470%. The STC %K hit 100% last Friday and closed at 94% today. The %D is above 70 at 81.42. MACD hooked up and volume increased by 364% closed at 16.6 Mil shares. The indicators shown that Penta is very bullish biased. As you can see there are not many volume before, so we predict the stock price will push higher on Tuesday morning before we expect some profit taking happen later.

We feel that this stock can push up easily mainly because it had consolidated for long time with very low volume. Once the buying volume come in, it easily takes away the seller price, as there are not many sellers there.



Stock to Watch for Tuesday 12/1/09

LBICap (code 8494)
Sector: Main board Industrial
Current Net Asset: 1.04
Current stock price: 0.785
Current PE: 7.84

LBICap was traded at RM11.20 before the 1997 Asia financial crisis. Since then the stock price was plunging down as low as 0.41 in 1998. It climbed again as high as 4.40 in Feb 2000. From the stock price 4.40 in year 2000, it slowly down trend until April 2001. The stock price had been trading in a range of 1.06 to 0.355 since Jan 2004. The consolidation period is about 6 years until today.

Looking at shorter view, the stock up 12% today with volume increased after consecutive down for 3 days. The immediate resistance is the upper trend line at 0.81. The support is at Fibo 0.705. The Bollinger Band had opened 21%, RSI below the threshold at 65.45, STC %K just above 30. The MACD hooked up and the volume increase by 858%. The momentum is above zero. These indicators indicate that LBICap potentially in the uptrend biased.

Also take a look at LBI-WA (code 8984-WA)
Expire date: 17 APR 2018
Exercise: 1:1 @ RM 1,00
Price closing today: o.25
Volume increase by 1243%