Technical Commentary 25-Feb-10:

Despite the fact that most Asia stock markets are in Red, our FBMKLCI still manages in “Green” at 1275 which led by AXIATA mainly and seconded by Maxis and CIMB until “Trading at last” the whole KLCI was dragged down by SIME (dropped additional 10sen, 500Lots) to close FLAT exactly. Finally, FBMKLCI closed 1270.78 with 349 up counters and 352 down counters. The market’s volume increases by 33% to 867mil shares traded but still below 40 days volume moving average. Technically, it’s still closed below 1272 critical level. So obviously, the resistance levels are still at 1272, 1276, 1281, and 1288, and the support levels are 1266, 1262, 1256, and 1252.

FBMKLCI Indicators

Despite expanded 12% yesterday, with the dragged down to close flat, the Bollinger band become contracted -6% today. Although the candlestick stays above the BBMB but the contraction in Bollinger band, FBMKLCI is considered entering consolidating situation with bullish biased;

RSI was above 50 but decrease slightly back to 54.59; this indicates that the market is bullish biased but consolidating stage;

STC %K closed at 81.67 and the %D stays at 93.37. This indicates that FBMKLCI is bullish biased but consolidating stage;

The MACD line had crossed the trigger line and continues to approach the ZERO level. This indicates FBMKLCI is bullish biased but uptrend has not confirmed until it passes the ZERO level.

The market volume has not passed above the 40 days volume moving average (996mil), implies that the overall market participation is still insufficient to push higher.

All the indicators above indicate FBMKLCI is bullish biased but consolidating stage. Technically, the uptrend has not confirmed unless it closed with breaks out 1272 or higher and stays above this level. Please refer to the picture of FBMKLCI daily chart for your reference.

Weekly Analysis

The overall market has increased by +13.11 (+1%) to close at 1270.78 but still below the weekly Bollinger middle band (1272). This implies that the market has not entered into bullish stage yet. The weekly volume has increased by 57.4% to 2.78bil shares but still below 40 days volume moving average that is around 4.68bil shares. In order for more confirming market, the volume will have to be above the moving average level. The Bollinger band is contracting at -2% implies the market is still in consolidating stage. A little bit of good sign is that the MACD histogram is forming a round bottom. STC and RSI are both around 50 line level.

Again, in order for the market to resume up trend, FBMKLCI has to closed and stay above 1272 subsequently. Otherwise, the market still negative biased.

Technical Commentary 24/02/10

Despite DJI plunged about 100 points, FBMKLCI did not follow, instead it was “green” all the time and closed positive at 1270.78 (+4.35, +0.34%). The immediate support level for FBMKLCI now is 1266 (FIBO) and the next support level is BBMB/FIBO at about 1256.5. The resistance levels are 1272, 1276 and 1288. The market’s volume was decreased by 2.2% and traded with 650 MIL shares today; it is still below 40 days volume moving average. There are 303 up counters and 350 down counters.

FBMKLCI Indicators
The Bollinger band had open 12% today with the candlestick stay above the BBMB, FBMKLCI is bullish biased

RSI was above 50 at 57.17; indicates FBMKLCI had entered into the bullish zone.

STC %K closed at 94.85 and the %D stays at 92.03. This indicates FBMKLCI is bullish biased.

The MACD line had crossed the trigger line and continues to approach the ZERO level. This indicates FBMKLCI is bullish biased but uptrend has not confirm until it passes the ZERO level.

All the indicators above indicate FBMKLCI is bullish biased but uptrend has not confirmed unless it breaks out 1272 or higher and stays above this level. Please refer to the picture of FBMKLCI daily chart for your reference.









Stock to consider with cut loss policy

Paramon – Possible uptrend however low liquidity

LHH – Still need volume support

LTKM – Possible uptrend will continue

MPHB - Continue to monitor

Parkson - Uptrend will continue....

Liihen - Mid term uptrend

Technical Commentary 23-Feb-2010

FBMKLCI closed flat at 1266.43 (-0.01, -0%) with slight increases in traded volume. The nearest support levels for FBMKLCI are 1262, 1256, and the next support level is BBMB at about 1252. The nearest resistance levels for FBMKLCI are 1268, 1272, and 1281. The market’s volume has increased by 10% with 664mil shares traded today, but it is still below 40 days volume moving average. There are 383 up counters and 267 down counters.

FBMKLCI Indicators

Today’s FBMKLCI is supported by MA100 and within the upper Bollinger Band. The Bollinger Band expended by 1% with candlestick stays above the BBMB.

Current Bollinger band is considered positive biased toward up trending. Of course, if tomorrow still closing green, that would be clearer on up trend, otherwise, it might consolidate further.

RSI is slightly above 50 level at 51 indicates FBMKLCI is positively biased toward bull trend.

STC %K closed at 96.78 and the %D stays at 88.2. This indicates FBMKLCI short term is bullish biased.

The MACD line had crossed the trigger line for the third today but still below zero line. If the momentum is continued to cross above the ZERO level, FBMKLCI will be more confirmed as bullish trend.

All the indicators above indicate FBMKLCI is getting bullish biased with slight expansion on Bollinger Band but insufficient market volume and MACD below zero level. Please refer to the picture of FBMKLCI daily chart for your reference.

Stock to watch with cut loss policy

Unisem – up trend intact…

Tomypak – up trend intact…

Evergrn – uptrend with volume and MACD above zero level. The nearest possible resistances are at 1.69 and 1.76. If broken above both may rally further.

LHH – needed more volume support uptrend. Watch for MACD above zero level.

Airasia – Broke up above 1.45 with volume supported, uptrend intact…

Measat - Just broke out 1.98 with volume increase

MPHB - Just broke out trend line with volume increase

Technical Commentary 22/02/10

Due to no big deal on interest rate hike in US, the Asian markets rebounded strongly today after plunging on last Friday. The local market rebounded strongly too however the volume still consider as low. We still view this as a technical rebound and not the up trend market. FBMKLCI closed at 1266.44 (+8.78, +0.7%). The immediate support level for FBMKLCI remains as 1255 and the next support level is BBMB at about 1250. The resistance levels are 1268 and 1272 respectively. The market’s volume was decreased by 3.7% and traded with 600 MIL shares today, it is still below 40 days volume moving average. There are 469 up counters and 196 down counters. With the gainers more than the losers, this indicates the overall market is bullish biased today.

FBMKLCI Indicators
The Bollinger band contracted 1% only from 3% last Fri with the candlestick stay above the BBMB, FBMKLCI still in consolidation phase but getting better due to rebound today.

RSI was touching 50; indicates FBMKLCI will enter into bullish zone if it crosses above 50.

STC %K closed at 98.48 and the %D stays at 83.75. This indicates FBMKLCI is bullish biased.

The MACD line had crossed the trigger line today. If it can continue to cross above the ZERO level, FBMKLCI will has a chance turn uptrend. The histogram had formed a rounding bottom, indicates there is a chance for FBMKLCI to rebound further and even cancel off the bearish trend if it broke above 1272.

All the indicators above indicate FBMKLCI is getting bullish but not confirm until the Bollinger Band is open. Please refer to the picture of FBMKLCI daily chart for your reference.










Stock to watch with cut loss policy

Unisem - Had broke above the trend line. Watch for break out above 2.24.....

Tomypak - Break out new high with volume grow today. Closed at 3.00, new high.

Evergrn - Need volume support and break out 1.50

LHH - Trend line broke out, need volume support

Airasia - Just broke out trend line, need volume support

Technical Commentary 19/02/10

FBMKLCI continues to consolidate today for most of the trading session and closed at 1257.67 (-1.33, 0.11%). The immediate support level for FBMKLCI remains as 1255 and the next support level is BBMB at about 1250. The resistance level is at the 100 days SMA, 1261 and the next critical resistance level is 1272. The market’s volume was increased by 4.1% and traded with 623 MIL shares today, however it is still below the 40 days VMA. There are 166 up counters and 470 down counters. With the losers more than the gainers, this indicates the overall market is bearish bias.

If the chart U-turn from the recent peak 1264, the outlook for FBMKLCI will be bearish biased. The 2 critical support levels 1255 and 1250 again became our main pivot points to decide the market direction. Hopefully these 2 points can provide some support to FBMKLCI, otherwise downtrend will continue.

FBMKLCI Indicators
The Bollinger band contracted 3% with the candlestick stay above the BBMB, indicates FBMKLCI is side way – consolidation.

RSI flat at 36.19; indicates FBMKLCI still consolidates with bearish biased.

STC %K closed at 77.6 and the %D stays at 75.7, although it is in the bullish zone however the BB is contracted, the bullish trend is not valid.

The MACD line had touched the trigger line however it is still below Zero level, it is still consider as bearish biased. The histogram had formed a rounding bottom, indicates there is a chance for FBMKLCI to rebound. However if the index continues to go sideway next week, a possible rounding top is formed and it might revert to downtrend.

All the indicators above indicate FBMKLCI was consolidated with bearish biased. Please refer to the picture of FBMKLCI daily chart for your reference.

For the mid term view, FBMKLCI is still bearish biased. The RSI and STC are below 50, BB slightly open by 3%, and the candlestick still below the BBMB. The resistance level is at the BBMB 127.6 and the support level is 1224. Please refer the chart below.

Technical Commentary 18/2/2010

As expected due to low trading volume, the market is flat today. FBMKLCI was consolidated most of the trading session and closed at 1259.39 (-0.07, 0.01%). The immediate support level for FBMKLCI is 1255 and the BBMB at about 1251. The resistance level is 1268 and the next critical resistance level is 1272. The market’s volume was increased by 9.9% and traded with 598.8 MIL shares today. The market volume still below 40 days VMA and it is insufficient to maintain the market to go up trend in short term. There are 233 up counters and 412 down counters. With the losers more than the gainers, this indicates the overall market is bearish bias.

FBMKLCI Indicators
The Bollinger band is flat at 0% with the candlestick stay above the BBMB, indicates FBMKLCI is side way – consolidation.

RSI flat at 31.86, indicates FBMKLCI still consolidates with bearish biased.

STC %K closed at 79.96 and the %D stays above 50 at 70.58, this indicates the FBMKLCI is trending up. However the BB is still flat, the bullish trend still needs to be confirmed.

The MACD line is below ZERO and still unable to cross the trigger line yet. The histogram had formed a rounding bottom, indicates there is a chance for FBMKLCI to go uptrend but it still not confirm until the MACD line hook up above the ZERO level.

All the indicators above indicate FBMKLCI was consolidated with slightly bearish biased. Please refer to the picture of FBMKLCI daily chart for your reference.

Due to DJI and the oversea markets rebounded strongly, FBMKLCI open with gap up after a long holiday. However the market volume is low with only 545 MIL (- 2.8%) shares traded today, the uptrend might not sustainable unless the institutional funds re-enter the market.
FBMKLCI maintains positive throughout the sessions and closed at 1259.07 (+5.68, +0.45%). FBMKLCI has not turn up trend yet unless it breaks out and stays above 1272 resistance level. The risk of down trending for FBMKLCI is still intact. The heavy weights like TNB, AMMB, GENM, Petdag, Plus and Maybank were heavily sold toward the closing and the CI loss about 3.5 points from 1262.5 to 1259.07 in the last 10 mins. This causes the candlestick to form a long shadow or shooting star, indicates there might be a correction for FBMKLCI.

FBMKLCI right now stays above the BBMB however if the trading volume continues to be low like today, the chances for it to go higher is slim. The immediate support level is 1255 and the BBMB. The immediate resistance level is 1268 and the next critical resistance level is 1272. There are 408 up counters and 206 down counters.

FBMKLCI Indicators
The Bollinger band contracted 4% with the candlestick stay above the BBMB, indicates FBMKLCI about to get out from the downtrending with continuous technical rebound today. The contraction of the BB also means that the FBMKLCI will consolidate and has a chance to rebound further.

RSI hooked up and broke above the threshold 30 and closed at 30.08, indicates FBMKLCI is rebounding from last session but still not turn bullish yet. If the RSI break above 60, the market will be bullish biased.

STC %K closed at 79.15, indicates FBMKLCI was rebounding strongly. The %D stay above 50 at 58.6, this indicates the FBMKLCI is trending up with bullish biased. If the %D can stay above 70, we will confirm the FMBKLCI will turn bullish in short term.

The MACD line still below ZERO but it had hooked up and going to cross the trigger line soon. The histogram had formed a rounding bottom; this indicates FBMKLCI has a chance to rebound further.

All the indicators above indicate FBMKLCI was technically rebound with bullish biased. If it can stay firm above BBMB with trading volume increase, then very high chance that it will completely close the gap and break up 1272. Please refer to the picture of FBMKLCI daily chart for your reference.

Technical Commentary 12/02/10

Despite low trading volume today, FBMKLCI slowly trending up and broke out 1250 & BBMB in the afternoon. FBMKLCI maintain above 1250 and closed at 1253.39 (+3.97, +0.32%). FBMKLCI has not turn up trend yet unless it breaks out and stays above 1268 resistance level. The risk of down trending for FBMKLCI is still intact. Before FBMKLCI can turn bullish it must close the gap first which it gapped down previously, please refer to the picture.

FBMKLCI right now temporary stay above the BBMB however if the trading volume for next week is still as low as today, the chances for it to go higher is slim. The immediate support level is 1250 and the BBMB 1252. The resistance level is 1255 and the next critical resistance level is 1268. The market’s volume was decreased by 13% and traded with 560.6 MIL shares today. The market volume still below 40 days VMA and it is insufficient to maintain a market to go up trend. If the volume can increase further next week, very likely it will close the gap and the market will turn bullish. There are 479 up counters and 144 down counters.

FBMKLCI Indicators
The Bollinger band contracted 5% with the candlestick stay above the BBMB, indicates FBMKLCI about to get out from the downtrending with continuous technical rebound today. The contraction of the BB also means that the FBMKLCI will consolidate and has a chance to rebound further.

RSI hooked down and still flat below the threshold 30, indicates FBMKLCI is still bearish but not going to get worse.

STC %K hooked up and broke above 50 at 66.2, indicates FBMKLCI was continue to rebound. If the %K can rise further to above 70, that means FBMKLCI will turn bullish biased. The %D stay above 30 at 39.17, this indicates the FBMKLCI is trending up with slightly bullish biased.

The MACD line still below ZERO but it had hooked up and going to cross the trigger line soon. The histogram had formed a rounding bottom; this indicates FBMKLCI has a chance to rebound further.

All the indicators above indicate FBMKLCI still consolidate with slightly bullish biased. If it can stay firm above BBMB with trading volume increase, then very high chance that it will close the gap and break up 1268. Please refer to the picture of FBMKLCI daily chart for your reference.

For the mid term view, FBMKLCI is still bearish biased. However the candlestick had formed a hammer shape, indicates FBMKLCI was supported well and had a chance to rebound further. The resistance is 1270, this level also the BBMB and the support is 1224. Please refer the chart below.

There are many counters seem to run today, further analyse these volumes mostly contributed by the retailers as the transaction volumes are small. The retailers are betting the market will be better after the market re-open next week. If their prices continue to fly high next week and you miss the boat, do not chase them. They will come back and you may buy them on the next rebound. Supermx had broken out the trend line today; the only worry is the support volume. Please refer to the chart below.

Happy New Year to everyone

Technical Commentary 11/02/10

As stated yesterday, FBMKLCI will consolidate around 1247. It was hover around 1247 level until 4:30pm, the sentiment getting a little better as Europe indices open about 1% higher, betting a good news from the EU summit. FBMKLCI was pushed higher last 30 mins and closed at 1249.42 (+3.25, +0.26%). Since the index still below the mid-band, it is just a technical rebound and it has not turn bullish yet. If it had broken above the mid-band and the resistance level 1255, then there is a chance for KLCI to turn bullish.

The immediate support level is 1247 and 1234. Whereas the immediate resistance is remains 1250 and the BBMB 1252. The market’s volume was increased by 5% and traded with 646 MIL shares today. The market volume still below 40 days VMA and it is insufficient to maintain a market to be up trend. If the volume can increase further tomorrow, very likely it will break out BBMB and the market will turn bullish. There are 276 up counters and 313 down counters.

FBMKLCI Indicators
The Bollinger band contracted another 18% with the candlestick still stay below BBMB, indicates FBMKLCI downtrend had further softened with technical rebound. The contraction of the BB also means that the FBMKLCI will consolidate and has a chance to rebound further.

RSI hooked down and still below the threshold 30, indicates FBMKLCI is still bearish.

STC %K hooked up and broke above 30 at 57.14, indicates FBMKLCI was having a technical rebound. If the %K can rise further to 70, that means that the FBMKLCI will turn bullish biased. The %D stay above 30 at 33.1, this indicates the FBMKLCI is trending up with slightly bullish biased.

The MACD line dipped below ZERO and the histogram had formed a rounding bottom. This indicates FBMKLCI has a chance to rebound further if the MACD line (green) crosses above the MACD trigger line (doted purple line).

All the indicators above indicate FBMKLCI will consolidate with slightly bullish biased. If the index can breaks above 1250 and stay above the mid-band, there is a chance for FBMKLCI to turn bullish. Please refer to the picture of FBMKLCI daily chart for your reference.









Stock to consider - NONE

Technical Commentary 10/02/10

As stated yesterday, there will be a technical rebound on FBMKLCI after it had oversold. We also stated that the immediate resistance level is from 1247 to 1250. The FBMKLCI exactly resisted by 1247 today and closed at 1246.17 (+12.31, +1.00%). Since the index still below the mid-band, it is just a technical rebound and it has not turn bullish yet. If it had broken above the mid-band and the resistance level 1255, then there is a chance for KLCI to turn bullish.

The immediate support level is remains at 1234-1232 and the next support level is about 1200 to 1197. The immediate resistance is remains at 1247-1250. The next resistance level is 1255, which is also a Bollinger mid-band. The market’s volume was reduced by 20% and traded with 615 MIL shares today. This means that more investors sideline or reduce their exposures to avoid holding many stocks during the long holidays. However the softening of the market volume also signal a consolidation phase will be started soon. Most likely the market will goes sideway or slightly downtrend if there is no volume support. There are 390 up counters and 254 down counters.

FBMKLCI Indicators
The Bollinger band contracted another 19% with the candlestick still stay below BBMB, indicates FBMKLCI downtrend had softened with technical rebound. The contraction of the BB also means that the FBMKLCI will consolidate and has a chance to rebound further.

RSI hooked up but still below the threshold 30, indicates FBMKLCI is still bearish and oversold.

STC %K hooked up and broke above 30 at 38.14, indicates FBMKLCI was having a technical rebound. If the %K can rise further to 70, this means that the FBMKLCI will turn bullish biased. The %D still stay below 30 at 12.99, this indicates the FBMKLCI still bearish.

The MACD line dipped below ZERO and the histogram likely to form a rounding bottom. If a rounding bottom is formed the FBMKLCI will has a chance to turn bullish.

All the indicators above remain bearish biased for FBMKLCI. However if the index can breaks 1255 and stay above the mid-band, there is a chance for FBMKLCI to turn bullish. Please refer to the picture of FBMKLCI daily chart for your reference.

Mid term view for FBMKLCI still remain bearish as the candlestick still below the BBMB. The immediate support is 1224 and the resistance is 1250 for mid term.

Technical Commentary 09/02/10

The bear trend on FBMKLCI was continued again today. The FBMKLCI went as low as 1224.37 before a technical rebound toward the afternoon section and closed at 1233.86 (-1.36, -0.11%). FBMKLCI just stay above the support level around 1232 to 1233. FBMKLCI nearest resistance level is 1247-1250. The immediate support level is 1232 and the next support level is about 1200 to 1197. The market’s volume was flat at 773 MIL shares (increased by 0.6) today. There are 293 up counters and 345 down counters.

FBMKLCI Indicators
Bollinger band had retracted another 4% with the candlestick still stay below BBMB, indicates FBMKLCI downtrend had soften and seem to rebound or consolidate from now. By switching the Bolliger Band to BB20, the candlestick had almost out of the BB lower band today. There is a chance for FBMKLCI to rebound soon. Down trend is limited temporary.

RSI stay below the threshold 30 at 18.21, indicates FBMKLCI is bearish and oversold.

STC %K hooked up at 12.99, indicates FBMKLCI might rebound but not confirm yet unless it can break out 30%.

The MACD line dipped below ZERO and the histogram dipped further. This indicates FBMKLCI still bearish.

All the indicators above remain bearish for FBMKLCI. However the STC and the RSI had indicated the market is oversold. We will see a technical rebound soon. Please refer to the picture of FBMKLCI daily chart for your reference.

Technical Commentary 08/02/10

The bear trend on FBMKLCI was continued today. The selling pressure is higher in the afternoon trading session and closed at 1235.22 (-12.68, -1.06%). FBMKLCI right now just at the support level around 1232 to 1236. FBMKLCI nearest resistance level is 1247-1250. The immediate support level is 1232 and the next support level is about 1200 to 1197. The market’s volume had decreased by 16.2%, traded with 769 MIL shares today. The decrease of market volume also means that the investors had reduce their exposure and started to sideline. There are 119 up counters and 608 down counters.

FBMKLCI Indicators
Bollinger band had retracted -1% with the candlestick still stay below BBMB, indicates FBMKLCI bear trend will continue but seem to go side way and consolidate from now.

RSI stay below the threshold 30 at 18.35, indicates FBMKLCI is bearish and oversold.

STC %K and %D stay at 1.0 and 11.79 respectively, indicates FBMKLCI quite bearish and oversold.

The MACD line dipped below ZERO and the histogram dipped further. This indicates the bear trend will continue.

All the indicators above remain bearish for FBMKLCI. However the STC and the RSI had indicated the market is oversold. We will see a technical rebound soon. Please refer to the picture of FBMKLCI daily chart for your reference.

How far can DJI and KLCI down?

Due to the crisis on credit issue at Europe and the job data in US, I had revised KLCI likely bottom at wave C. I also predict DJI down trend movement. This is just my personal technical analysis and you just use it as your trading reference. It might or might not happen. Just for precaution and reference.

The recovery in Europe and US are slow, there is a danger of 2nd crisis (credit issue) happen which could be more severe than the previous one. The other problem is China is overheated, they are worry of simular issue that happen in US. The China government came out with all kind of monetary policies to prevent that happen. The 3rd problem is US government (Obama) proposal, prevent the bank using the hedge funds to "goreng" properties, stocks and currencies. If this happen, the stock market will hit hard in the mid term because the money have to return to US. Of course this is a good precaution for long term to prevent another bubble burst but the investors don't like the proposal.

Likely lowest support level for KLCI
Wave 5 1308, we had done that
Wave A, on the way to 1100 - 1080
Wave B rebounded to 1160 - 1167
Wave C corrected to 920 - 900
Total correction around 30%. Previous correction is 47%
From 920 or 900 you will see a inverse H&S or W or triple bottom

Likely lowest support level for DJI
Wave 5 10729, we had done that
Wave A, on the way to 8072
Wave B rebounded to 9117
Wave C corrected to 6285
Total correction around 40%. Previous correction is 55%
From 6285 you will see a inverse H&S or W or triple bottom

Technical Commentary on KLCI 05/02/10

The world markets were dropping seriously today. Our market cannot escape from this major correction. FBMKLCI open with gap down and stay below 1250 for most of the trading session and closed at 1247.90 (-17.13, -1.35%). FBMKLCI had fallen below 1250, this means the bear trend had started. Another confirmation of bear trend is, FBMKLCI had formed a lower high at 1267, which is lower than previous high 1308. Right now FBMKLCI nearest resistance level is 1250 and the next resistance level is 1255. The immediate support level is 1236. The market’s volume had increased by 47.9% today, traded with 918 MIL shares today. The increase of market volume also means that the selling pressure is high however there are buyers willing to buy at lower price and hope to make some profit if the market rebound. There are 162 up counters and 589 down counters.

FBMKLCI Indicators
Bollinger band had expanded 1% with the candlestick still stay below BBMB, indicates FBMKLCI bear trend will continue.

RSI stay below the threshold 30 at 24.36, indicates FBMKLCI is bearish and oversold.

STC %K and %D stay at 0.79 and 16.7 respectively, indicates FBMKLCI quite bearish and oversold.

The MACD line dipped below ZERO and the rounding bottom of the histogram had been cancelled after FBMKLCI big drop today. This indicates the bear trend will continue.

All the indicators above remain bearish for FBMKLCI. Please refer to the picture of FBMKLCI daily chart for your reference.

The mid-term view of KLCI’s bullish trend had been broken today after FBMKLCI dipped below 1250. All the indicators like MACD, STC and RSI are bearish. The mid-term resistance is 1250 and the support is 1236. Please refer to the picture of FBMKLCI weekly chart for your reference.









If bear trend is started, how far it will go?

I did an analysis on the FBMKLCI weekly chart, we assume FBMKLCI is in wave A now. The support of wave A is about 1200. We ignore the smaller waves in the wave A. This should happen from Jan 22nd to the end of Feb time frame. Likely it will found a support at 1200 and rebound from there to form a wave B. The time frame for wave B likely between Mar to APR. The wave B likely resisted by 1250-1255 or 1267. From these points, a wave C will be started and this is the most serious correction of the 3 waves. The time frame should be from Apr to June. Possible support for wave C is 1100. If 1100 is broken, then the next support is 1036. If 1036 is broken, then 920 should be a solid support for FBMKLCI. If wave C break down 1100, the time frame should drag longer probably until Aug 2010. Please refer to the picture below.

Technical Commentary 04/02/10

After rebounded for 2 days, the selling activities on FBMKLCI restarted again. KLCI was staying in the negative zone for most of the trading sessions and closed at 1265.03 (-2.12, -0.17%). KLCI30 will fall in the consolidation phase if it not able to break out 1267 in near term. The possible trading ranges for KLCI likely between 1267 to 1255 levels. KLCI nearest resistance level now is 1267 and the next resistance level is 1272. The support level is still remains as 1255. The market’s volume further decreased by 28.3% traded with 620.7 MIL shares today. The volume is far below the 40 days VMA now. This means that the investors are getting more caution and started to stay away from the market. There are 216 up counters and 446 down counters.

FBMKLCI Indicators
Bollinger band had contracted to 0% with the candlestick still stay below BBMB, indicates KLCI is consolidate with bearish biased.

RSI stay at 34.57 levels indicates KLCI30 still bearish biased.

STC %K and %D stay at 21.54 and 19.28 respectively, indicates KLCI30 still bearish.

The MACD line dipped below ZERO but the histogram seems to form a rounding bottom soon. If it successful to form a rounding bottom, then KLCI will has a chance to rebound.

All the indicators above remain bearish biased for FBMKLCI. Please refer to the picture of FBMKLCI daily chart for your reference.

The mid-term view of KLCI’s bullish trend still intact unless the support level 1250 is broken. However all the indicators like MACD, STC and RSI are bearish biased. If the index can stay above the BBMB in near term, KLCI will escape from the bear trend. Otherwise the outlook of KLCI will become bear trend for mid-term.









Counters for those who can monitor online and have a cut loss policy only

1. Affin - continue to monitor, buy above 2.66 or higher for mid term holding
2. CSCSTEL - Hold if you had bought
3. AIC - Hold if you had bought
4. Kenanga - Watch for T+4 profit taking, might run again after correction
5. Liihen - Under value counter. T+3, T+2 and T+1, watch for T+4 profit taking, might run again after correction.
6. KPJ - moving up but resisted at 2.35 and BBMB, watch for break out BBMB.
7. Latitud - Under value counter. T+3, T+2 and T+1, watch for T+4 profit taking. Might run again after correction.
8. Hiro - Under value counter. Watch for break out around 0.92
9. Magna - watch for retest 1.05

Technical Commentary 03/02/10

FBMKLCI continues to rebound for 2nd day and closed at 1267.15 (+3.39, +0.27%). KLCI nearest resistance level now is 1272 and the next resistance level is 1280. The support level is still remains as 1255. The market’s volume was decreased by 6.8%, traded with 865 MIL shares today. The volume is below the 40 days VMA now. This means that the investors are getting more caution and started reduce their exposure. The rebounce was significant in the afternoon; especially the rubber glove sector rebounded strongly today. There are 459 up counters and 221 down counters.

FBMKLCI Indicators
Bollinger band expansion had soften again, expanded only 2% from yesterday with the candlestick stay below BBMB, indicates KLCI30 still not get out from the recent correction yet.

RSI stay at 34.05 levels indicates KLCI30 still bearish biased.

STC %K and %D hooked up at 25.37 and 15.78 respectively, indicates KLCI30 still bearish but seem to rebound higher. If %K stay above 30 tomorrow, very high chance that the KLCI will continue its technical rebound toward the resistance 1272.

The MACD line dipped below ZERO but the histogram had formed a rounding bottom. This indicates KLCI likely to continue its technical rebound toward 1272 and the BBMB.

All the indicators above remain bearish biased for FBMKLCI. Please refer to the picture of FBMKLCI daily chart for your reference.

The mid-term view of KLCI’s bullish trend still intact unless the support level 1250 is broken. However all the indicators like MACD, STC and RSI are bearish biased. If the price can stay above the BBMB in near term, KLCI will escape from the bear trend.









Counters for those who can monitor online and have cut loss policy only

1. Affin - Must break out 2.66 with volume
2. CSCSTEL - Must break above 1.50
3. JAKS
4. AIC
5. CSCENIC - low liquidity
6. Rubber stocks - Supermx, Adventa, Ruberex, Latexx

Technical Commentary 02/02/10

As predicted on last Friday commentary, due to KLCI’s candlestick was out of BB20 lower band, it will rebound on today. The rebound partly also due to DJI up more than 100 points on last Friday. However KLCI was resisted by 1264.5 to 1267 and closed at 1263.76 (+4.6, +0.37%). KLCI nearest resistance level now is 1264.5 and the next resistance level is 1272. The support level is still remains as 1255. If KLCL able to break the resistance level 1272, the chances for it to move higher is still intact. However if 1255 is broken, KLCI will form a lower low. Then the outlook of KLCI will likely to become downtrend.

The market’s volume was decreased by 4.6%, traded with 928 MIL shares today. The volume is just touching the 40 days VMA. This means that the markets’ volume is still sufficient to keep the market active. However we noticed that the top 3 volume contributors are come from PN17 counters. This doesn’t sound healthy for the market. There are 359 up counters and 347 down counters.

FBMKLCI Indicators
Bollinger band expansion had soften, expanded only 7% from last Friday with the candlestick stay below BBMB, indicates KLCI30 still bearish.

RSI stay at 30.5, indicates KLCI30 is still quite bearish.

STC %K and %D hooked up at 19.25 and 11.29 respectively, indicates KLCI30 still bearish but seem to rebound soon.

The MACD line dipped below ZERO and the histogram seem to form a rounding bottom soon. This indicates KLCI 30 still bearish biased. If the histogram started to form a rounding bottom, KLCI30 will has a chance to rebound.

All the indicators above are bearish biased for FBMKLCI. Please refer to the picture of FBMKLCI daily chart for your reference.