Wednesday, March 3, 2010

Technical Commentary 03/03/10

As expected, FBMKLCI had already up for 6 trading sessions, it is time for it to take a break. Today our FBMKLCI opens with gap up at 1290.51 due to bullish biased on Greece rescue hope. It continued to climb as high as 1292.35 (+4.35) before profit taking started at 930am all the way down to 1284.5 (-3.5) at 12pm. It was then consolidate and closed at 1286.10 (-1.97, -0.15%) with 294 up counters and 402 down counters. The market’s volume increases by 2.9% to 863.7mil shares traded, below the 40 days volume moving average.

Today’s top 5 lagging components are CIMB, MAYBANK, SIME, TANJUNG, and PLUS that dragged down the CI, while the top 5 leading components are PBBANK, MMCCORP, GENM, RHBCAP, and YTLPOWER. Many second and third liners are under correction and consolidation stage.

FBMKLCI Indicators

KLCI candlestick still stays above the BBMB on the uptrend band and today the Bollinger band expanded only 1%. This indicates FBMKLCI uptrend momentum had reduce and will turn sideway soon.

RSI increases to close 76.15, this indicates that the market is bullish biased and is at improving stage. However RSI is a lagging indicator and respond slower than STC.

STC had hooked down with %K closed at 87.34 and the %D decreases to 81.88. Since the %K is lower than %D, this indicates FBMKLCI is turning around from uptrend to sideway or correction. However as long as the STC still stay above 70 level, FBMKLCI still view as bullish biased.

Unfortunately, the MACD breaks up above zero level does not supported by the market volume which closed below 40 days volume moving average (1.02bil), implies that the overall market participation is insufficient to sustain the market higher.

All the indicators above indicate FBMKLCI still bullish biased however if FBMKLCI continues to go sideway or correction on the next few sessions, the short term view for FBMKLCI will be bearish. The next nearest possible resistance levels are 1288, 1292, 1298, and 1300. The nearest possible supportive levels are 1284 (small gap), 1276, 1273, 1267, and 1266. Please refer to the picture of FBMKLCI daily chart for your reference.