Thursday, March 4, 2010

Technical Commentary 4-Mar-2010, Thursday:

Today our FBMKLCI opens at 1286.69 (+0.59) with intraday high at 1287.78(+1.68) and intraday low at 1284.09 (+2.01) and finally closed 1284.09 (+2.01, 0.16%) with 281 up counters and 385 down counters. The market’s volume decreases by 15.9% to 726mil shares traded, 3rd day below the 40 days volume moving average (1.03bil).

Actually today is T+3 day after the market volume past above VMA. Since morning session, the FBMKLCI market has been in the selling biased increasing nominally from around 58% to 64% in the afternoon. During the last 15 minutes, the FBMKLCI is further push down mainly by PETDAG (down 0.29) by additional 2 points.

Today’s top 5 leading KLCI components are MAYBANK, PBBANK, YTLPOWER, IOICORP, and AXIATA, while the top 5 lagging KLCI components are AMMB, PETDAG, PETGAS, TENAGA, and MAXIS. Many second and third liners are still correction and consolidation stage.

FBMKLCI Indicators


KLCI candlestick still stays above the BBMB on the uptrend band but today the Bollinger band start to contract by 4%. This indicates FBMKLCI uptrend momentum had reduced and consolidating sideway.

RSI increases to close 89.18, this indicates that the market is bullish biased and is further improved. However, RSI is a lagging indicator and respond slower than STC.

STC had hooked down with %K closed at 76.45 and the %D decreases to 86.13. Since the %K is lower than %D, this indicates FBMKLCI is turning around from uptrend to sideway or correction. However, as long as the STC still stay above 70, FBMKLCI still is viewed as bullish biased.

Although the MACD has been broken up above zero level, but today it formed a round top with lower market volume which closed below 40 days volume moving average (1.03bil). This implies that the overall market participation is insufficient to sustain the market higher.

All the indicators above indicate FBMKLCI still bullish biased but FBMKLCI continues correction and consolidating side way. If this scenario is continued for the next few days, the short term view for FBMKLCI will be turning bearish if failed to be supported by BBMB.

Tomorrow is Friday, it is also viewed as T+4 (force selling day) with respect to the 1.06bil traded volume 3 days ago (1-Mar, Mon). So, if tonight and tomorrow has no good news to lead the market, tomorrow may has a further dip in FBMKLCI with the support levels as mentioned below.

The next nearest possible resistance levels are 1288, 1292, 1298, and 1300. The nearest possible support levels are 1281, 1276, 1273, and 1266.

Please refer to the picture of FBMKLCI daily chart for your reference