Thursday, March 11, 2010

Technical Commentary 11-Mar-2010, Thu

Today all Asia bourses closed at mixed with the fear that China might tighten its monetary policy sooner than later. Institutional investors are taking profits after weeks of rally. Next week will have important events namely Bank of Japan’s policy review and US Federal Reserves’ policy review, and Europe’s review on Greece’s future plans. Perhaps of the above reasons that jerk the market up & down this week, profit taking took place every now and then.

Today, FBMKLCI opens at 1326.35 (-1.87) and up to the intraday high of 1334.34 (+6.12). After then, FBMKLCI suffers profit taking right after 9.45am. The sell rate is improving from around 47% until 63% through the whole afternoon session. The intraday low is at 1318.94 around 4.45pm and finally closed at 1321.43 (-6.79, 0.51%). There are 274 up counters and 440 down counters with the market total traded volume decreased by -15.2% to 792mil shares which is below the 40 days VMA of 961mil.

Today’s FBMKLCI top 5 leading components are IOICORP, AMMB, PPB, DIGI, and MISC, while the top 5 lagging components are SIME, MAYBANK, AXIATA, GENTING, and CIMB.

FBMKLCI Technical Indicators

KLCI candlestick still within the uptrend band and the Bollinger band contracted by -1%. This indicates FBMKLCI is in correction or consolidation stage, may move side way.

RSI decreases to 81.41. This indicates that FBMKLCI is still bullish but weaker momentum.

STC %K decreases to 79.93 and the %D decreases to 90.5. This indicates FBMKLCI is still bullish but soften.

MACD maintains above zero level but the histogram starts forming the rounding top scenario. This may suggest correction and moving side way.

The overall market technically is in uptrend situation but the overall momentum is decreasing with the market volume traded below VMA. The market could be in consolidating stage until the Bollinger band re-open.

Just a reminder, tomorrow, Friday is T+4 force sell day of Monday that attained 1.16bil shares traded exceeded 40 days VMA volume. Since the Asia markets have responded to the fear of China monetary policy implementation down the road and possible next week important events mentioned above, it is reminded to trade with precaution after all the market has been on the uptrend for more than three weeks already.

The nearest possible resistance levels are 1334, 1353, 1380, 1436, and 1524. The nearest possible support levels are 1318, 1308, 1300(BBMB).

Please refers to the chart below for more information.